October 2023
DRAFT
State of Maine Housing
Production Needs Study
Homes to support Mainers and Maine businesses,
now and in the future.
1
Contents
Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................... 2
Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................... 3
Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 3
Approach ................................................................................................................................................... 4
Key Findings .............................................................................................................................................. 6
Measuring Housing Need .......................................................................................................................... 8
Setting Production Goals ........................................................................................................................ 11
Study Approach ..................................................................................................................................... 12
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 12
Background Research and Existing Studies ............................................................................................. 13
Determining Geographic Boundaries ...................................................................................................... 14
What is happening in Maine’s housing market now? .............................................................. 16
Overview ................................................................................................................................................. 16
Demand-Side Drivers of Housing Need .................................................................................................. 16
Supply-Side Drivers of Housing Need ..................................................................................................... 23
Housing Availability and Affordability ..................................................................................................... 33
How many homes does Maine need today? ................................................................................ 40
Historic Underproduction ....................................................................................................................... 40
Income Distribution ................................................................................................................................ 46
Historic Underproduction Geographic Distribution ................................................................................ 49
How many homes will Maine need to accommodate future population growth? ........ 52
Overview ................................................................................................................................................. 52
Accommodating Population Growth ...................................................................................................... 53
Future Need Geographic Allocation........................................................................................................ 55
Total Need ............................................................................................................................................... 56
Next Steps and Implementation ..................................................................................................... 58
Appendix…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..……………………………….59
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Acknowledgements
The State of Maine Housing Production Needs Study is the result of a joint effort between MaineHousing,
the Governor’s Office of Policy Innovation & Future (GOPIF), the Maine Department of Economic and
Community Development (DECD), and a broad group of stakeholders. We thank the following individuals
and organizations for their invaluable contributions to conceptualizing, informing, refining, and otherwise
offering direct input to this Study. This Study was prepared by HR&A Advisors.
Steering Committee:
Benjamin Averill, DECD
Hilary Gove, DECD
Erik Jorgensen, MaineHousing
Greg Payne, GOPIF
Technical Working Group:
Sophia Campbell, HR&A Advisors
Kate Dufour, Maine Municipal Association
Erin Fenton, Department of Labor
Suzanne Guild, Maine Association of Realtors
Phillip Kash, HR&A Advisors
Matthew Marks, Associated General Contractors
of Maine
Mark McInerney, Department of Labor
Matthew Panfil, Greater Portland Council of
Governments
Amanda Rector, Maine State Economist
Arjun Sarma, HR&A Advisors
Additional Contributors:
Daniel Brennan, MaineHousing
Ryan Fecteau, GOPIF
Laura Fortman, Department of Labor
Frank O’Hara
Hannah Pingree, GOPIF
Bath Housing
Island Housing Trust
Island Institute
Jewish Community Alliance of Southern Maine
Catholic Charities Maine
Maine Department of Health and Human
Services
Maine Immigrant and Refugee Services
Maine Immigrants’ Rights Coalition
WishRock Housing Group
Laura Semeraro, HR&A Advisors
Christiana Whitcomb, HR&A Advisors
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Executive Summary
Introduction
In response to a national housing crisis accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic, policy makers are
increasingly asking, how many and what kind of homes are needed to meet the needs of our constituents and
improve affordability? The scale and nature of housing challenges varies significantly across regions and
places but is driven by a primary underlying cause: housing production dropped precipitously after the
Great Recession, leading to a nationwide undersupply of homes, especially at low and moderate income
price points.
1
These trends were exacerbated by the pandemic through materials and labor shortages
just as some places—Maine in particular—experienced a sudden influx of residents due to an increase in
remote workers seeking a higher quality of life and an increase in international immigration. What was
once primarily a problem for coastal cities has become a national one; almost every county in America
now has significant rates of renter cost burden, among other housing challenges (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Percentage of Cost Burdened Renters by County
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year 2021
While Maine has historically had a relatively affordable homeownership market, this changed in the years
leading up to the pandemic and has worsened since 2020.
2
Maine is also faced with an aging housing
stock, leading more of the state’s existing homes to sit vacant in need of reinvestment. These trends have
led to a range of housing challenges for Mainers, including reduced housing quality, limited options to
age in place, increased homelessness, and rising housing costs. All these issues are important to study
further. However, at the most basic level, aligning housing production with population and economic
growth is the foundation of a healthy housing market that offers quality homes at a price affordable to
1
Betancourt, Gardner and Palim. (2022). Housing Insights: The U.S. Housing Shortage from a Local Perspective.
Fannie Mae. https://www.fanniemae.com/media/45106/display
2
MaineHousing Affordability Index. (2023). MaineHousing. https://mainehousing.org/data-research/housing-
data/housing-affordability-indexes
> 45.8%
36.2%
< 27.0%
4
residents. The first step is to understand how many homes are needed to support broad
affordability and availability, which lays the foundation to adopt policies to create those homes.
Addressing housing supply challenges in Maine will require a comprehensive approach that considers
both the local regulatory changes needed to increase housing supply through new construction and the
funding needed to reinvest in Maine’s aging homes and create new homes that are affordable to those
with lower incomes, including seniors on fixed incomes, households waiting for federal work
authorization, and others. Further, strategies to overcome other barriers, such as the capacity of the
development and construction industry in Maine and environmental challenges, will all be necessary as
part of a comprehensive approach to increase supply.
3
While this will require both local and state-wide
strategies, the historic hyper-local response to what is ultimately a regional problem has been one of the
primary barriers in Maine and nationwide to building enough homes.
In recognition of this, the State of Maine has taken the lead on a strategy to build new homes and
reinvest in existing homes state-wide through the passage of LD 2003 and over $280,000,000 in
affordable housing production funding since 2019. LD 2003 requires municipalities to permit a wider
range of housing types and commits State financial and technical assistance for municipalities to support
local and regional production targets, including through measuring regional housing production needs.
LD 2003 recognizes that a data-informed approach to measuring regional and statewide housing
production needs is key to a broader state-wide planning effort to increase housing production.
This Study is a key step in this process, and it aims to answer the question, how many homes are
needed in Maine now and in the future to support Mainers to have access to the homes they need,
in a location that promotes economic opportunity, and at a price that ensures a high quality of
life? This Study is focused on measuring that need in alignment with the State’s specific demographic and
economic conditions as well as goals to ensure that Maine can sustain and grow its economy over time.
This Study measures “homes” as housing units in any building type, including single family, attached
housing and multifamily housing. Building and reinvesting in a diverse range of housing types to meet
different household needs and price points will be crucial to meeting Maine’s housing supply needs.
This Study, conducted by HR&A Advisors, was overseen by a Steering Committee representing
MaineHousing, the Governor’s Office of Policy Innovation and the Future (GOPIF), and the Department of
Economic and Community Development (DECD), together the “Study Team”, which met regularly to
coordinate research planning, data collection, and priority areas of analysis.
The Study Team also solicited feedback from a Technical Working Group composed of representatives
from the Department of Labor (DOL), the Maine State Economist, the Greater Portland Council of
Governments, the Maine Association of Realtors, the Maine Municipal Association, and other experts.
Approach
Maine has a set of broad policy priorities that inform this Study’s approach to measuring how many
homes need to be built or reinvested in. The first is to have enough homes overall to accommodate
the existing demand for homes. When there is an insufficient supply of homes, competition for the
limited number of homes available drives up prices to levels that are unaffordable to many existing
3
Sturtevant and Curtis. (2023). Availability of Workforce Housing in Maine. University of Maine.
https://usm.maine.edu/shaw-innovation-fellows/wp-content/uploads/sites/406/2023/05/Workforce-Housing-in-
Maine_Sturtevant-Curtis_Shaw-Innovation-Fellowship-8-May-2023-1.pdf.
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Mainers. A healthy housing market—one that has enough homes to accommodate existing demand
across income groups—has a portion of homes that are vacant and available at any given time
4
. These
available homes allow households to move about the state as they change jobs, move out of homes to
start their own family, or otherwise need to relocate because of changes in their life. Right now, there are
portions of the state where there are simply no homes available for a household to move into.
The second policy priority is to have enough homes affordable, available and in the right locations to
support the workforce necessary to sustain and grow Maine's economy. The State’s Economic
Development Strategy focuses on the need for a workforce to support Maine’s long-standing industries
and to foster growth and innovation in new areas. To achieve these goals, Maine’s economy requires
workers to fill open positions as an increasing number of Mainers reach retirement and room for new
workers to fill positions created as local businesses and the economy grow. Without enough homes for
workers filling open job positions, businesses will continue to struggle and at times fail—harming the
prosperity of all Mainers.
With these two goals in mind, this Study calculates both the number of additional homes needed
currently to remedy Historic Underproduction and, by 2030, the Future Need to meet these policy
priorities. In recognition of Maine’s regional economies, Historic Underproduction and Future Need are
calculated for three economic regions: the Coastal Region, comprising Cumberland, Hancock, Knox,
Lincoln, Sagadahoc, Waldo, and York Counties, the Northeastern Region, comprising Aroostook,
Penobscot, and Washington Counties; and the Central Western Region, comprising Androscoggin,
Franklin, Kennebec, Oxford, Piscataquis, and Somerset Counties.
Other studies have quantified the need for homes in Maine, particularly for affordable rental homes. For
example, the National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC) has estimated a shortage of 22,300
affordable and available rental homes for households making at or below 50% of Area Median Income
(AMI) and mostly for extremely low income households. While the State of Maine Housing Production
Needs Study considers housing need at the lowest income levels, the primary focus is on measuring
overall production needs for both renters and homeowners across the income spectrum in Maine,
incorporating the demand for seasonal homes, the need for additional workers, and the recent influx of
higher income households to Maine, all of which significantly impact the availability and price of homes in
Maine. Different approaches can be used together to understand different elements of housing need in
the state.
This Study does not, however, detail the specific physical typologies of homes needed to support different
populations including the elderly, asylum-seekers and refugees, those experiencing homelessness, and
different household types more broadly. It is important for the State and municipalities to take into
account local population needs and make regulatory and funding decisions accordingly, including by
reducing regulatory barriers to building the types of homes that households need and securing funding
for homes that can support populations with the highest need. Local planning should consider how
different housing types, including single family, attached and multifamily rental and for-sale homes, can
support availability at the price points needed while also considering local context.
Ultimately, setting production targets is a process that will need to account for regional variation in
demographic trends, economic development needs, and existing constraints on housing development.
4
Vacant and available homes do not include vacant homes that are not currently available for full-time
residence, whether due to disrepair, seasonal use, foreclosure, or other factors.
6
This Study provides analysis to help guide that process (Figure 2). As local planning follows, local
adjustments to these targets should be balanced with the likely impact on the availability and affordability
of homes for existing Mainers and the economic health of the state. These production targets will also
need to be monitored over time as economic and demographic conditions change and as municipalities
take steps to meet these targets. For more information about the Study approach, see page 12.
Figure 2: Setting Housing Production & Reinvestment Targets
Key Findings
While trends vary across the state, homes are becoming less affordable and harder to find in
Maine. There are demand-side drivers, including sudden in-migration and declining labor force
participation amongst Maine’s aging population, and supply-side drivers, including low housing
production and an aging housing stock, that are broadly driving these trends.
Demand-Side Drivers
Recent demand-side drivers, including sudden in-migration during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic
and a declining labor force from aging households, are impacting the number of homes Maine needs.
Maine experienced increased in-migration from out of state in recent years, concentrated in York and
Cumberland Counties but distributed across the state. These in-migrants have higher incomes on average
than existing Mainers and are able to pay more for homes. Maine has also experienced a surge in
households seeking asylum, who generally have very low incomes in the short-term as they await federal
work authorization.
At the same time, Maine’s population is aging, resulting in a declining labor force. This impacts both the
kinds of homes needed to accommodate a retiring population and homes needed to enable employers to
attract more workers to the state to fill open job positions. Over the past decade, Mainers 55 and over
have grown as a share of the population, and labor force participation among this group has significantly
declined since 2017 as the group gets closer to retirement age. As a result, overall labor force
State of Maine Housing
Production Needs Study
7
participation has not recovered post-pandemic as older workers retire, even as labor force participation
amongst younger groups has remained steady.
In order to fill the job vacancies created by increased retirement, Maine will need to bring in
workers from out-of-state, who will in turn require additional homes to live in.
5
Maine currently
has a very high share of unfilled job positions, with many parts of the state having more vacancies than
available workers. Many of these jobs skew somewhat lower income, reflecting a growing mismatch
between what many new workers could afford and the price of Maine’s available homes.
Supply-Side Drivers
These demand-side drivers are exacerbated by supply-side challenges, namely Maine’s aging housing
stock and low housing production over the past decade.
As the housing stock ages, the share of homes that are unavailable to be occupied due to poor condition
has increased. As these homes deteriorate over time, the inventory of homes can gradually decline
through demolition. There is limited data to quantify the annual loss of homes through demolition or
disrepair, however, individual towns and localities may have the information or begin to gather the
information through demolition permits to track the loss of homes over time. Ultimately, this data will
need to inform local production and reinvestment targets.
Maine has also had low housing production relative to job growth across all regions, but particularly
in the Coastal Region, which is a key measure of housing supply issues. Both the Central Western and
Northeastern regions have seen total housing inventory decline slightly since 2016. The state has also
seen a decline in rental homes across all regions, which runs counter to the trend in almost every other
housing market in America and is likely exacerbating Maine’s workforce challenges, as workers in entry-
level and lower wage positions often require rental housing options.
Finally, the consistently high demand for seasonal homes means that Maine has historically
required a higher number of homes relative to the number of year-round residents and available
jobs than states with lower seasonal demand.
Availability and Affordability
As a result of low production, reduced rental housing and an aging housing stock, the availability of
homes is declining and prices are increasing, making it very difficult to access and afford homes and fill
job openings in some parts of the state. Not all vacant homes in a housing market are available, as some
vacant homes might be reserved as a seasonal home, in foreclosure, in disrepair or otherwise unavailable
to the market for occupancy. True “availability” of the housing stock is defined as the vacant units that are
ready and available for a household to move into. In a healthy housing market, typically about 5% of
homes are vacant and available for use at any given time—allowing for housing choice flexibility and
5
Maine’s 2020 – 2029 Economic Development Strategy also aims to increase the labor force participation rate
of groups with historically lower participation, such as women and people with disabilities. However, the plan
acknowledges that in order to support Maine’s economic growth, additional workers will also have to come
from out of state.
Maine Economic Development Strategy 2020-2029: A Focus on Talent and Innovation. (2019). Maine
Department of Economic and Community Development.
https://www.maine.gov/decd/sites/maine.gov.decd/files/inline-files/DECD_120919_sm.pdf
8
movement. Across Maine, the share of homes vacant and available has fallen to an average of 2.3%
statewide.
Homeownership in Maine is becoming increasingly unaffordable. Under a standard definition set by
the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), homes are considered affordable if the
rent or cost of ownership
6
is less than 30% of household income. Until recently, the cost of purchasing a
home in Maine was such that a household earning the median income could afford the mortgage on the
median home value. In recent years, however, the demand- and supply-side drivers described above, in
addition to macroeconomic trends such as rising interest rates, have caused a significant divergence
between the income needed to purchase a home in Maine and the actual median income of Mainers;
households now need to make over $100,000 annually to afford the median home price As a result,
buying a home in Maine now is not affordable for the majority of Mainers.
Renters in Maine are also facing affordability and availability challenges. Maine has seen a decline in
renter-occupied units across the state since 2016, and the majority of renter households below 60% of
Area Median Income (AMI)
7
in Maine were cost burdened (paying over 30% of household income in rent)
in 2021, with the highest rates of cost burden in the Coastal Region. Although renter cost burden rates
remained relatively consistent from 2016-2021 (the most recently available data), rents and homes prices
increased significantly in 2022 and 2023 and exceeded wage increases, which has likely increased cost
burden rates since 2021.
Measuring Housing Need
To address these needs and meet the State’s policy priorities, Maine needs approximately 38,500
homes to remedy historic underproduction and will need an additional 37,900 to 45,800 homes to
meet expected population growth and household change by 2030 (Table 1). Maine can meet this goal
both through the production of new homes and reinvestment in existing homes that are vacant or
unavailable due to disrepair or foreclosure.
Table 1: Historic Underproduction and Future Need by Region
Region
Historic
Underproduction
Future Need
(2021 – 2030)
Total
Coastal 21,200 24,200 – 28,000 45,400 – 49,200
Central Western
13,000 9,700 - 11,700 22,700 – 24,700
Northeastern 4,300 4,000 - 6,100 8,300 – 10,400
Maine 38,500 37,900 - 45,800 76,400 – 84,300
Historic Underproduction: The Study Team defines historic underproduction as the deficit of available
homes for the existing population (the availability deficit) plus the deficit of homes for workers needed to
6
Includes mortgage, property taxes, and insurance.
7
See Appendix Page 5 for explanation of Area Median Income calculations.
9
increase the workforce to support Maine’s existing economy (the jobs : homes deficit)
8
. For more
information about how the Study Team measured historic underproduction in Maine, see page 40.
Future Need: The Study Team defines future need as the number of homes needed to support Maine’s
projected population and household change by 2030, while accounting for Maine’s high demand for
seasonal homes. For more information about how the Study Team measured future need in Maine, see
page 52.
To put this need in context, Maine’s total housing inventory in 2021 was about 737,800 homes. Increasing
the number of homes to meet historic underproduction alone (38,500 additional homes) would constitute
about a 5% increase in total homes across the state. To meet both current and future need by 2030,
Maine would need to add 8,500 to 9,300 homes each year (Table 2). Currently, about 4,800 homes are
permitted per year in Maine, and meeting this annual need would require a 77% to 94% increase in the
number of permits (with geographic variation). It is important to note that annual building permits are not
an exact measure of housing production, as not all permitted homes are built. The necessary increase in
housing production may be larger than current permitting suggests and will vary based on the annual
loss of homes in different regions.
Table 2: Annualized Production Needs Compared to Annual Building Permits by Region
Total Annual
Production
Need
5-year
average (2016
- 2021)
% Change in
Permits
Net Change in
permits
Coastal 5,100 – 5,500 3,400 50% - 62%
1,700 – 2,100
Central Western 2,500 – 2,700 1,000 150% - 170%
1,500 – 1,700
Northeastern 900 – 1,100 400 128% - 175% 510 - 700
Maine 8,500 – 9,300 4,800 77% - 94% 3,700 – 4,500
The number of additional homes needed varies across Maine’s regions. Much of it is concentrated in the
Coastal and Central Western Regions, which together need 34,200 homes to make up for historic
underproduction, and another up to 39,700 homes to meet future need. The Northeastern Region, by
contrast, needs about 4,300 additional homes to make up for historic underproduction and meet the
economic needs of the region and another 4,000 to 6,100 homes to meet future need by 2030.
Even in places where overall population is aging and declining, there is still need for housing production
and reinvestment; in fact, household formation can increase in these circumstances (children of an aging
population move into their own homes and some existing households split up). For example, while
Aroostook, Piscataquis and Somerset Counties are all projected to see a modest total population decline
by 2030, all of those counties will still see a net gain in households in that time period as well as a housing
stock that continues to age, requiring additional homes and reinvestment. Further, as these regions face
a declining workforce, new homes at affordable price points will be essential to attracting workers to the
region and ensuring that existing younger households can stay.
8
The “availability deficit” measures the additional homes needed to create a healthy level of availability in the
housing market, with “true availability” representing homes that are vacant and available to live in (defined as
For Sale and For Rent in the American Community Survey).
10
Income Distribution
In addition to the number of homes that Maine needs to sustain and grow its economy, it is important to
measure the price of homes needed to ensure that households hoping to work or age in place in Maine
can afford them. The Study Team created a sample income distribution by allocating the availability
deficit based on the income distribution of existing households (Table 3) and the jobs : homes deficit on
the expected household income distribution of wages from open job listings (Table 4).
Table 3: Allocation of Availability Deficit Based on Existing Household Income Distribution
9
Household Income Coastal Central Western Northeastern
Regional Totals 9,400 4,900 2,300
Less than 20K 1,100 780 420
20K - 35K 1,000 760 380
35K - 50K 1,000 730 320
50K - 75K 1,700 880 410
75K- 100K 1,400 650 290
100K - 150K 1,700 690 290
150K+ 1,500 410 190
Table 4: Allocation of Jobs : Homes Deficit Based on Estimated Household Wages of Open Job
Listings
10
Household Income Coastal Central Western Northeastern
Regional Totals 11,900 8,100 2,000
Less than 20K 70 50 10
20K - 35K 660 360 170
35K - 50K 1,230 640 210
50K - 75K 2,000 1,400 410
75K- 100K 2,300 1,600 380
100K - 150K 3,200 2,300 470
150K+ 2,500 1,700 350
9
Income Distributions are allocated based on regional numbers and rounded to the tens for counts in the
hundreds, and hundreds for counts over a thousand. Due to rounding, numbers may not sum exactly to
regional or state numbers.
11
It is important to note that low- and moderate-income households are more constrained in their choices
and more likely to pay more than they can afford for a home. Because of that, policy makers should
emphasize strategies to increase affordable housing production for low- and moderate-income
households in addition to strategies to increase the supply of homes more broadly. At the local level, this
may include weighting the income distribution of needed homes more heavily towards low- and very low-
income populations to account for this need.
Geographic Distribution
Across regions, individual jurisdictions are contributing more or less to housing demand based on
job growth, demographic and migration trends, and other factors, including the existing inventory of
available housing and the share of seasonal homes.
To measure local contributions to housing demand, the Study Team weighted the allocation of regional
need to the county level by both population share and job share of each county. Weighting allocation by
population and jobs helps ensure that housing to address the State’s historic underproduction is being
added in places where jobs are, both to support households in living close to where they work and also to
ensure that towns and cities that are growing economically are also accommodating the population
needed to support that growth. This avoids issues of decreasing affordability when housing is not
provided where job growth exists, and unnecessary development in areas where there may not be as
significant job or population growth.
There are many alternative ways to allocate housing to more granular geographies across Maine, many of
which would incorporate unique criteria specific to certain areas of the State.
Setting Production Targets
Meeting this housing need will require Maine to set housing production and reinvestment targets that
address both historic underproduction and disinvestment and account for future need. The next step in
the process will be to set housing production and reinvestment targets at the local level and to consider
the different housing typologies that can support housing production across the income spectrum. To
move from the regional level to the local level will involve consideration of local obstacles such as
available infrastructure, development capacity and other factors. It will also involve dialogue among
communities about where and how to accommodate growth and target reinvestment within the region.
Ultimately, creating enough homes in Maine is foundational to the wellbeing of all Mainers and can only
be achieved if the State and federal government, municipalities and the private sector work together on
an ongoing basis. This will require evaluating important metrics, such as availability rate, housing
production, cost burden, job availability, housing loss and others over time and adjusting housing
production and reinvestment targets to adapt to changing conditions.
In order for stakeholders to monitor these changing conditions and track progress towards local housing
production targets, the State will be providing an online data dashboard of baseline housing conditions at
the state, county, and municipal level that will be updated on a periodic basis. Moving forward, improved
collection of both building permitting and demolition data, as well as continuous tracking of vacancy
trends, will also be critical for monitoring new development. For more information on evaluation and
implementation, see page 58.
12
Study Approach
Introduction
There are many different policy makers, planners, organizations, and researchers who are already
working to understand housing needs in Maine, deliver programs and services, and plan for current and
future housing needs. This Study involved extensive engagement with state and regional experts and
stakeholders to inform its approach and methodologies.
This Study, conducted by HR&A Advisors, was overseen by a Steering Committee representing
MaineHousing, the Governor’s Office of Policy Innovation and the Future (GOPIF), and the Department of
Economic and Community Development (DECD), together the “Study Team”, which met regularly to
coordinate research planning, data collection, and priority areas of analysis.
The Study Team also solicited feedback from a Technical Working Group composed of representatives
from the Department of Labor (DOL), the Maine State Economist, the Greater Portland Council of
Governments, the Maine Association of Realtors, the Maine Municipal Association, and other technical
experts. Members of the Working Group provided ongoing input on data sources, analytical
approaches—including consistency with existing methodologies used by State agencies—preliminary
findings, and methodology development for measuring housing production and reinvestment needs.
In addition, the Study Team conducted a series of interviews regarding the housing needs of special
populations and the role of housing in supporting economic development across the state with
organizations including:
• Maine Immigrants’ Rights Coalition
• Jewish Community Alliance of Southern Maine
• Catholic Charities Maine
• Maine Immigrant and Refugee Services
• Island Institute
• Island Housing Trust
• Bath Housing
• WishRock Housing Group
Interviewees described a broad range of opportunities and challenges in Maine’s housing market.
Emergent themes included the need for housing to support Maine’s aging population while welcoming
new households to help support Maine’s economy; concerns about the impact of Maine’s seasonal
housing and short-term rentals on the available year-round stock; the challenges of providing homes for
the growing number of asylum seeker and refugee populations, and the difficulties faced by employers in
filling open job positions without available workforce housing.
Crucially, these discussions highlighted key State economic development goals that informed the Study
Team’s methodology to measure housing production and reinvestment needs—namely, to encourage
and enable communities to plan for housing to support a high quality of life for all Mainers while
also supporting economic stability and growth in the state.
13
Background Research and Existing Studies
The Study Team conducted a review of existing studies and plans to understand previous research on
housing challenges and opportunities in Maine. The National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC) has
estimated a shortage of over 22,000 rental homes, however this shortage is specifically for low-income
renters, suggesting the overall number for all income groups is much higher.
A recent study by researchers at the University of Southern Maine found that Maine is short 20,000 –
25,000 homes for existing extremely low-income Maine residents, as well as 10,000 – 20,000 homes that
are necessary to attract enough workers to fill open job positions.
11
In total, the study estimates Maine
has a shortage of 30,000 – 40,000 new homes currently.
When considering broader housing needs beyond housing supply, housing studies at the municipal
level
12
echo common themes, including:
• Lack of homes necessary to accommodate an aging population while creating homeownership
opportunities for younger households.
• Aging housing stock in need of repair and reinvestment.
• Lack of affordable housing for low and middle-income households, exacerbated by undersupply
of homes, and (anecdotally) increased housing demand from out-of-state in-movers.
• Difficulty filling open job positions due to limited housing availability.
• Housing located far from jobs and transit, resulting in long commutes and high household travel
costs.
• Concerns about a rise in seasonal housing and short-term rentals putting pressure on the
housing stock within certain tourism-heavy communities.
This Study intersects with these issues in certain areas, including by measuring the number of homes
needed to support healthy availability in the housing market overall and a healthy job market. This Study
builds on previous work by considering the regional need for homes across the income spectrum as well
as the need to meet demand for seasonal homes and homes for recent higher income in-migrants, both
of which significantly impact the availability and price point of homes for low and moderate-income
residents. This Study does not, however, detail the specific physical typologies of homes needed to
support different populations including the elderly, asylum-seekers and refugees, those experiencing
homelessness, and different household types more broadly. It is important for the State and
municipalities to take into account local population needs and make regulatory and funding decisions
accordingly, including by reducing regulatory barriers to building the types of homes that households
11
Sturtevant and Curtis. (2023). Availability of Workforce Housing in Maine. University of Maine.
https://usm.maine.edu/shaw-innovation-fellows/wp-content/uploads/sites/406/2023/05/Workforce-Housing-in-
Maine_Sturtevant-Curtis_Shaw-Innovation-Fellowship-8-May-2023-1.pdf.
12
Crane Associates and EPR. (2022). City of South Portland Housing Needs Assessment and Strategy.
https://go.boarddocs.com/me/sport/Board.nsf/files/CF9GZQ46438A/$file/Att.%201%20-
%20Final%20Housing%20Report_05.20.2022.pdf.
Edwards, Keith. (2021). Augusta housing study shows changes needed to address lack of affordable housing.
Kennebec Journal. https://www.centralmaine.com/2021/02/15/augusta-housing-study-shows-changes-needed-
to-address-lack-of-affordable-housing/.
Camoin Associates and The Musson Group. (2018). Housing Needs Analysis and Assessment: Mount Desert
Island, ME. Island Housing Trust.
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/569fba9076d99cc6c04e5005/t/5cc204b16f3d150001a80f8a/1556219104
894/IHT-Housing-Study-2018.pdf.
14
need and securing funding for homes that can support populations with the highest need. Local planning
and studies should consider how different housing types, including single family, attached and
multifamily rental and for-sale homes can support availability at the price points needed while also
considering local context.
The Study Team reviewed housing production studies across the country to compare how different
methodologies can be used to accommodate important local economic and housing market trends in
Maine. In California, regional goals incorporate population, vacancy rates, overcrowding, cost burden, and
replacement rates, and are allocated to the municipal level by regional councils of governments (COGs).
Similarly, Oregon sets regional targets incorporating projected need, historic underproduction, and
homes for people experiencing homelessness based on population and vacancy rates. Massachusetts,
rather than using regional metrics, sets a goal of 10% affordable housing for each municipality. For more
information on national production goal methodologies, see Appendix Page 3.
Determining Geographic Boundaries
Given the alignment between State economic development goals and housing needs, the Study Team
strove to align the geographic boundaries of this study with Maine’s economic geographies. Maine’s
housing and labor markets are unusually regional— Maine has the longest median 1-way commute in
miles in the United States, with the median commuter traveling close to 10 miles each way.
13
As a result,
this Study uses regional geographies when measuring housing need in Maine relative to jobs but also
points to the need for new homes that can support Mainers to live closer to their jobs.
In recognition of this, the Study Team selected the Department of Labor’s three Workforce Investment
Regions as the highest geographic level for the Study (Figure 3).
14
Figure 3: Maine Workforce Investment Regions and Counties
13
Commutes Across America: Where Are the Longest Trips to Work? (2018). Streetlight Data.
https://www.streetlightdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Commutes-Across-America_180201.pdf
14
In order to align the Workforce Investment Region boundaries with Census data used to study current
housing needs in Maine, the Study Team reallocated Hancock and Piscataquis Counties from the Northeastern
Region to the Coastal and Central Western Regions, respectively.
15
The Coastal Region, consisting of Cumberland, Hancock, Knox, Lincoln, Sagadahoc, Waldo, and York
Counties and encompassing the greater Portland area, is the most heavily populated of the three regions
and is currently home to 55% of the state’s jobs in 2023
15
. The Central Western region consists of
Androscoggin, Franklin, Kennebec, Oxford, Piscataquis, and Somerset Counties, and is home to the cities
of Augusta, Lewiston and Auburn. The Northeastern region is the smallest and most rural of the three
regions, consisting of Aroostook, Penobscot, and Washington Counties. For a detailed list of towns,
counties and cities in each region, see Appendix Page 1.
15
Defined as total employment (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2023) added to total open job listings (Job Openings
and Labor Turnover Survey, 2023).
16
What is happening in Maine’s housing market now?
Overview
Before measuring housing production needs, the Study Team explored existing conditions and trends in
Maine’s housing market to understand key demographic, economic and housing inventory dynamics that
influence housing need. These conditions and trends, summarized below, highlight Maine’s unique
economic, demographic and housing market conditions, all of which inform both the need for more
homes in Maine and the opportunity for homes to better support economic development in the state.
Adequate housing supply to meet demand is the foundation of affordability in any housing market,
including Maine’s diverse regional housing markets (Figure 4). As such, it is important to understand both
housing supply and housing demand trends to ensure that enough homes are created and preserved in
Maine that are the type and price that households need. This study explores both demand-side drivers of
housing need (demographic and economic change) and supply-side drivers (housing age, type, prices and
production) to arrive at housing production and reinvestment needs. While trends vary across the state,
recent demand-side trends, including sudden in-migration and declining labor force participation, are
exacerbated by Maine’s aging housing stock and low overall housing production over the past decade. As
a result, the availability of homes is declining and prices are increasing, making it very difficult to access
and afford homes in some parts of the state.
The following sections explore these trends in greater detail and illustrate how these trends impact
Maine’s housing supply needs.
Figure 4: Supply and Demand of Homes
In a healthy housing market, housing demand, the number of households by income level, size, and type, is
equivalent to housing supply, the number of suitable homes for households, with some additional availability
(vacancy). When housing demand exceeds housing supply, more homes are needed to ensure availability and
affordability.
Demand-Side Drivers of Housing Need
Overall population and population growth determines how many people presently need homes and
how many people will need homes in the future. The type and size of households, in combination with
population growth, determines how many homes and what types of homes are needed to accommodate
the population and their household needs. Finally, household income determines how much money
households can put towards housing costs each month, impacting the needed price point of homes.
Each of these local factors is influenced by both regional and national trends, and changes in any of these
elements will impact the amount, type and price point of homes needed in a housing market. Maine has
experienced recent demand-side shocks, including the following:
17
• Sudden in-migration during and after the Covid-19 pandemic, generally from higher income
households (in-migrants had an average household income of $88,000 compared to $78,000 of
existing residents.
16
• A surge in asylum-seekers, who generally have very low incomes in the short term.
• A declining labor force as the State’s population ages, impacting both the kinds of homes
needed to accommodate the population and employers’ ability to fill open job positions.
Population Change
Historically, Maine has experienced modest overall population growth, with a 10.5% increase in
population from 1990 to 2021. This growth has lagged other northeastern states; New Hampshire grew
by 23.7% and Vermont by 14% in this time period (Figure 5).
Figure 5: Comparative State Population Growth, 1990 – 2021
Source: Decennial Census 1990 – 2021
While the State has grown overall, population change has varied across the state. The Coastal Region,
where most of the state’s population is concentrated, has grown by 22.2% since 1990. Much of the
Coastal Region’s growth has been driven by Cumberland and York Counties, which each grew by nearly
7% from 2010 to 2021 alone. By contrast, the Central Western Region only grew by 4.6% and the
Northeastern Region declined by -6.8% in that time period (Figure 6).
16
Maine’s average household income of $78,000 is higher than the median household income of $63,200, which is
used as a reference point throughout the rest of this report.
1,230,000
1,270,000
1,330,000
1,360,000
1,110,000
1,235,786
1,316,470
1,370,000
560,000
608,827
625,741
640,000
0.0M
0.2M
0.4M
0.6M
0.8M
1.0M
1.2M
1.4M
1.6M
1990 2000 2010 2021
Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
18
Figure 6: Population Growth by Region, 1990 – 2021
Source: Decennial Census 1990 – 2021
Income Distribution
Maine’s households are somewhat lower income than its neighboring states, with a median household
income of $63,200 relative to New Hampshire’s median income of $83,400 and Vermont’s median income
of $69,000. 58% of households earn less than $75,000, slightly more than the 54% of households earning
under $75,000 in the United States as a whole.
Income distribution varies by region, however, with higher incomes in the Coastal Region in particular.
16% of households in the Coastal Region earn more than $150,000, relative to 8% in the Central Western
and Northeastern Region. The Northeastern Region has the lowest incomes, with almost 50% of
households earning less than $50,000 annually (Figure 7).
269,000
253,000
259,000
250,000
371,000
373,000
388,000 388,000
588,000
649,000
681,000
718,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
1990 2000 2010 2021
Coastal
Central Western
Northeastern
19
Figure 7: Income Distribution by Region, 2021
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year 2021
Recent In-Migration
Recently, significant in-migration has quickly increased the demand for homes in Maine. This is
particularly concentrated in York and Cumberland Counties, which respectively received 1,200 and 2,000
in-migrant households in 2020 alone (a little under 2% of their baseline total households). On average, the
recent in-migrant households have somewhat higher incomes than existing households, with an average
income of $88,000 compared to a median income of $63,200 for existing households
17
. This has
increased demand for housing across the income spectrum, but particularly at higher price points (Figure
8).
17
IRS data only provides average income of in-migrants, rather than median income, preventing direct
comparison to Maine’s median income. The average income of Maine’s existing residents is $78,000.
11%
16%
18%
11%
15%
17%
11%
15%
14%
18%
18%
18%
15%
13%
13%
18%
14%
13%
16%
8%
8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Coastal Central Western Northeastern
<20K 20K - 35K 35K - 50K 50K - 75K 75K-100K 100K-150K 150K+
20
Figure 8: In-Migration Versus Baseline Population by County, 2020
Source: Internal Revenue Service 2021, American Community Survey 5-Year 2021
Bubble Size = Baseline Population
Demand at the lowest income levels is also being impacted by a recent uptick in households seeking
asylum, who generally need short-term housing support. Since 2018, the number of individual notice-to-
appear cases filed annually in Maine (a proxy for the total number of asylum seekers arriving in Maine)
has risen from under 400 to nearly 3,400 as of August 2023 (Figure 9).
Figure 9: Total Individual Notice-To-Appear Cases Filed, 2001 - 2023
Source: TRAC New Proceedings Filed in Immigration Court; Notice to Appear Deportation Cases 2001 – 2023
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Net Out of State In
-Migrant Households as Share
of Baseline Total Households
Total Out of State Net In-Migrant Households
York
Cumberland
Penobscot
Kennebec
143
86
97
161
159
173
117
87
231
1,205
749
561
2,010
3,356
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
$88K
Average income
of in-migrants
$78K
Average income of
existing households
21
Facing short-term restrictions on employment by the Federal Government, households seeking asylum
often rely on Maine’s General Assistance Program to find housing in the private market or utilize
subsidized housing, which is difficult and costly to build quickly. Locations where housing is more
affordable may be far from public transportation, a particular barrier for households without access to a
car, and far from the support of existing refugee and asylum seeker communities. In addition, a high
proportion of larger households arriving—data from the Office of Maine Refugee Services (OMRS)
suggests that asylum seekers have an average household size of 4 people compared to 2.6 in the state on
average—can make it difficult to find affordable homes that allow families to stay together.
Labor Force Participation
Maine has an aging population, which also means an aging labor force. Since 2011, Mainers 65 and over
have grown from 16% to 21% of the population. This is significantly higher than in the United States
overall (16%) and higher than all neighboring states, including Vermont (20%), New Hampshire (18%) and
Massachusetts (17%). Until recently, Maine had significantly higher labor force participation amongst 55 –
64 year-olds relative to the United States as a whole, peaking at 73% in 2017. The decline of this labor
force participation rate, which accelerated during the Covid-19 pandemic and does not track with national
trends for this age group, is already impacting the health of Maine’s economy as businesses find it
increasingly challenging to fill open job positions (Figure 10).
Figure 10: Ages 55 - 64 Labor Force Participation, Maine vs. United States, 2003 - 2022
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics 2003 – 2022
The decline in labor force participation amongst older Mainers suggests pandemic-driven early
retirements, while labor force participation amongst younger groups has remained relatively consistent
(Figure 11). As a result, Maine’s overall labor force participation has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels,
in contrast with the national labor force participation rate, which has largely recovered.
62%
63%
64%
65%
64% 64% 64%
65% 65% 65% 65%
63%
68%
65%
66%
64%
69%
68%
73%
68%
67%
63%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Maine
United States
22
Figure 11: Maine Labor Force Participation by Age, 2003 – 2022
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics 2003 – 2022
Note: No data in 2019 for All Ages and 65 Years and Over.
This decline in labor force participation for older adults, as well as Maine’s aging population more
broadly, has contributed to a need for additional households to support Maine’s existing economy.
As of May 2023, Maine had 46,000 unfilled job positions, just over half of which are estimated to be
located in the Coastal region
18
.
Unfilled job listings skew toward lower paying positions. In the Northeastern and Coastal regions, over
50% of job listings pay less than $50,000 annually (Figure 12). This suggests that in-migrants, who are
generally higher income, are not necessarily filling these positions at high rates as they move to the state.
It also creates a large and growing mismatch between the home price that workers can afford and the
price of available homes.
18
HR&A analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, 2023.
83%
81%
85%
82%
81%
63%
73%
63%
13%
20%
19%
67%
65%
58%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2003 2009 2015 2021
20 - 34 Years 35 - 54 Years 55 - 64 Years 65 Years and Over All Ages
23
Figure 12: Job Listing Wages by Region, 2022 - 2023
Source: Lightcast 2023
There has been a dramatic uptick in the “Unclassified” category, which includes new employer accounts
from out of state that have not yet been processed by the State Department of Labor in their Quarterly
Census of Employment and Wages. This may be a reference to the increase in remote workers, but
further study is needed to understand the increase in remote work in Maine and the impact on wages.
The result of these economic and demographic trends is that the ability to pay for higher-priced
homes is increasing for some segments of the population while others struggle to afford costs in
an increasingly constrained market. Existing residents who are not actively part of the workforce or
who have low or moderate wages (particularly those earning less than 80% of AMI) are competing in the
same housing market. The Coastal Region is particularly impacted by this increased demand by higher
wage households, but this region has also seen an influx of households seeking asylum who are in need
of much lower cost housing options. Without adequate increased housing supply to meet this rising
demand at different price points, Mainers are seeing reduced availability and affordability across all
regions, as described in further detail below.
Supply-Side Drivers of Housing Need
Housing supply is influenced by the total number of homes in a market, the types of homes (may
include multifamily at varying densities, single-family homes, mobile homes, or other non-traditional
home types (boats, etc.), the tenure of homes available (homes can be either owned or rented), the
price point (can be influenced by available subsidy programs, overall supply of homes and by what
tenure or type, and be impacted by demand and the availability (whether the home is vacant and
available for a user to occupy by renting or purchasing).
Maine’s existing housing supply is composed primarily of single-family homes that are owned, which is
also the primary type of housing that has been added to the market. However, over the last decade,
Maine’s housing production has lagged job growth. Furthermore, the inventory of homes that
need reinvestment is increasing, which is reducing the overall availability of homes.
5%
18%
28%
19%
19%
9%
1%
5%
13%
20%
30%
24%
6%
1%
4%
28%
23%
29%
8%
4%
3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
<20K 20K - 35K 35K - 50K 50K - 75K 75K-100K 100K-150K 150K+
Coastal Central Western Northeastern
24
Tenure and Typology
Owner-occupied homes represented 73% of all Maine’s homes in 2021, a high share relative to the
housing stock of the United States as a whole, which was 65% owner-occupied in 2021. Of those owner-
occupied homes, close to 87% were single-family homes (on par with the United States owner-occupied
stock, which is 89% single-family) (Figure 13). Notably, mobile homes, an affordable homeownership
option, made up 9% of the owner-occupied stock.
There is greater diversity in Maine’s renter-occupied housing stock, with low-density 2-9 unit buildings
providing about 20% of the rental options in the state, and 10 – 49 unit buildings providing about 10% of
rental options. The rental stock has a high representation of single-family homes, however, with single-
family homes making up 61% of rental homes, close to twice the single-family share of the United States
rental stock (33%). This is likely due to the overall character of Maine’s housing inventory, local zoning
regulations and the rural nature of much of the state.
Figure 13: Occupied Units by Typology and Tenure in Maine, 2021
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year 2021
Subsidized Housing
Federal, State and local subsidy can be used to provide direct assistance to households or to reduce the
cost to build or operate homes. Although income eligibility for subsidized housing varies by program,
these subsidies are typically available to households making up to 80% of Area Median Income. The most
prominent funding source for affordable housing is the federal Low-Income Housing Tax Credit, provided
to developers of affordable rental housing
19
, which ultimately reduces the total rent that occupants pay to
better align with what they can afford. Public housing, another common type of affordable housing, is
typically owned and managed by the local housing authority. Housing vouchers, a form of direct subsidy to
tenants, provides rental assistance that allows households to rent on the private market at a price point they
can afford (or, in some cases, specific project-based units).
In 2021, Maine had approximately 28,000 subsidized rental homes with income restrictions ensuring
affordability to households making less than 60% of AMI. These homes make up 21% of the rental
19
The Low-Income Housing Tax Credit program gives State and local agencies an annual budget to issue tax
credits to support construction or preservation of affordable housing.
87%
61%
3%
18% 10% 4%
9%
3%4%
Owner-Occupied
Renter-Occupied
Single Family 2-9 Units 10-49 Units 50+ Units Mobile Home Other
25
housing stock, a substantial share (Figure 14). Maine has continued to add affordable housing: just over
7,500 of these subsidized, income-restricted units have been added since 2010 (Figure 15).
A further 71,850 units were affordable to households making less than 60% of AMI without rent
restrictions, often referred to as “Naturally Occurring Affordable Housing (NOAH).” These units made up
54% of Maine’s rental stock in 2021.
Figure 14: Rental Housing by Affordability and Rent Restricted Status, 2021
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) 2021, National Housing
Preservation Database 2021
21%
54%
24%
Rent Restricted, Affordable at Less Than 60% AMI Unrestricted, Affordable at Less Than 60% AMI
Unrestricted, Affordable at 60 - 100% AMI Unrestricted, Affordable at Greater Than 100% AMI
26
Figure 15: Rent Restricted Units in Maine by Earliest Subsidy Date, 2021
Source: National Housing Preservation Database 2021
Housing Production
Overall housing production has lagged job growth over the past decade—particularly in the
Coastal region. All regions have gained significantly more jobs than housing units, with total housing
inventory remaining essentially constant since 2016, with a slight decline in the Northeastern Region
(Figure 16, Table 5). Job growth has been primarily concentrated in the Coastal Region, and while housing
inventory there has grown modestly, the region has seen only 21,300 homes built relative to an increase
of 39,334 jobs over the past decade (Table 5). The Northeastern region in particular has had modest job
growth. However both the Northeastern Region and Central Western regions have availability rates of
close to 2%, suggesting that limited housing supply may be impeding the ability of new workers to move
to these regions to fill open positions.
Figure 16: Total Housing Inventory by Region, 2010 - 2021
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year 2021
8,000
5,200
2,600
4,600
7,500
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Pre-1980 1980 - 1989 1990 - 1999 2000 - 2009 Post-2010
367K
212K
135K
376K
214K
137K
389K
214K
135K
0K
50K
100K
150K
200K
250K
300K
350K
400K
450K
Coastal Central Western Northeastern
2010 2016 2021
27
Table 5: Net New Units versus Change in Employment and Job Listings
New / Lost Units
2010 -2021
New / Lost Jobs
(2010 - 2022)
Change in Job
Listings (2010 –
2022/23)
Availability Rate
Coastal +21,304 +39,334 +13,144 2.1%
Central Western +2,389 +5,791 +9,408 2.2%
Northeastern (181) +725 +2,583 3.0%
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year 2021, Bureau of Labor Statistics State Current Employment
Statistics 2010, 2023 allocated using QCEW, Lightcast job listings 2010 , 2023
Notably, the state has experienced an overall decline in rental homes, with the greatest gross and
percentage loss in the Coastal region of 3,000, or a 4% loss (Figure 17). This may be exacerbating labor
force challenges for low and moderate wage jobs, which typically do not pay enough for workers to afford
most homeownership options and thus rely heavily on rental housing.
Figure 17: Renter Occupied Units by Region, 2016 - 2021
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year 2021
Moderate and low-density rental homes (single-family and 2-9 unit homes) in particular have
declined in stock since 2016, with Maine seeing a loss of 4,800 single family homes (a 14% decline)
29,600
44,400
78,000
152,000
31,200
44,900
81,000
157,100
Northeastern
Central Western
Coastal
Maine
2016 2021
-1%
(500) Units
-5%
(1,600) Units
-4%
(3,000) Units
-3%
(5,100) Units
28
and 4,100 low-density (2-9 unit) homes (a 5% decline). These losses are concentrated among homes
affordable to households earning 60 – 80% of AMI, which since 2016 have declined by over 3,500 single-
family homes (a 33% decline) and almost 1,400 low-density homes (a 9% decline), although modest
growth in higher density rental housing for low- and moderate-income renter households may have
eased some cost pressures for renters.
Vacant Housing Stock
Facing limited housing production relative to demand, some of Maine’s growing housing demand
is being absorbed by vacant housing stock. All regions have seen a decrease in vacant for-rent and
vacant for-sale housing stock, meaning that there are increasingly limited available housing options for
both renters and homebuyers (Figure 18). This scarcity increases competition for available homes and
helps drive up prices. Simultaneously, Maine’s inventory of homes that are unavailable due to other
conditions including foreclosure, repairs and family reasons, has increased by nearly 5,000 statewide
since 2011, further reducing the available housing stock.
20
Figure 18: Vacant Housing in Maine, 2011 - 2021
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) 2021
Much of this need for repair and reinvestment is likely driven by Maine’s aging housing stock. Maine’s
homes are older on average than the rest of the country, with homes built before 1960 making up around
35% of the housing stock in all regions, relative to 27% in the United States as a whole (Figure 19). This
aging is particularly acute in the Central Western and Northeastern regions, where close to 60% of homes
in 2021 were built before 1980.
20
American Community Survey detailed vacancy breakdowns, including the share of Other Vacant housing in
need of repair, are unavailable historically, limiting this study’s ability to directly assess changes in need for
repair over time.
12,900
2,200
9,500
2,000
210
22,800
8,600
2,000
5,000
2,700
220
27,700
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
For Rent Rented, Not
Occupied
For Sale Only Sold, Not
Occupied
For Migrant
Workers
Other Vacant
2011 2016 2021
• Foreclosure
• Personal/Reasons
• Legal Proceedings
• Preparing to rent/sell
• Held for storage
• Needs repairs
• Currently being repaired
• Extended absence
• Abandoned/possibly
condemned
29
Figure 19: Age of Housing Stock by Region, 2021
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year 2021
Both Maine’s aging stock and increasing share of homes unavailable due to foreclosure, repairs and other
reasons suggest that declining housing quality is a significant factor in Maine’s housing availability
challenges. However, data directly assessing housing quality in Maine is scarce, and further study will be
needed to more accurately measure the extent of repair and reinvestment needed in Maine’s housing
stock.
Seasonal Homes and Short-Term Rentals
Maine’s tourism and seasonal economy has also shaped its available housing supply. Maine has always
had a high share of seasonal homes, representing 16% of Maine’s total housing stock in 2021. The
proportion of seasonal homes statewide has remained generally level, with a slight decrease from
124,500 homes in 2016 to 120,600 homes in 2021 (Figure 20). 85% of seasonal homes were concentrated
in the Coastal and Central Western Regions, where seasonal housing makes up close to a fifth of the
housing stock (Figure 21). In the Coastal Region, the share of seasonal housing remained consistent from
2000 – 2021 (Figure 22).
The consistently high demand for seasonal homes means that Maine has historically required a
higher number of homes relative to the number of year-round residents and available jobs than
states with lower seasonal demand.
8%
6%
5%
5%
14%
14%
11%
12%
14%
13%
12%
12%
13%
15%
14%
13%
25%
19%
23%
23%
27%
34%
36%
35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
United States Coastal Region Central Western Region Northeastern Region
Built 2010 Onwards Built 2000 to 2010 Built 1990 to 2000
Build 1980 to 1990 Built 1960 to 1980 Build 1960 or Earlier
30
Figure 20: Seasonal Homes Over Time by Region, 2000 - 2021
Source: Decennial Census 1990 – 2021
Figure 21: Seasonal Housing as Share of Total Homes by Region, 2021
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year 2021
52,800
33,300
15,400
61,200
36,700
16,400
64,700
40,900
18,900
64,100
38,700
17,800
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Coastal Central Western Northeastern
2000 2010 2016 2021
17%
18%
13%
83%
82%
87%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Coastal Central Western Northeastern
64,100 Homes
17,800 Homes
38,700 Homes
31
Figure 22: Seasonal Housing As Share of Total Homes Over Time in the Coastal Region, 2021
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year 2000, 2010, 2016, 2021.
The rise of online short-term rental platforms has raised some concerns in Maine about the extent to
which available homes are being converted to short-term rentals. Using AirDNA, a platform tracking
Airbnb and Vrbo rentals across the state, the Study Team found that Maine had 23,859 short-term rental
properties with at least one reservation between April 2022 and 2023, largely concentrated in the Coastal
region (16,904), followed by the Central Western region (5,014) and Northeastern region (1,941), about
20% of seasonal homes overall.
21
While short-term rentals make up an increasing share of seasonal homes, they are not always directly
comparable to homes that might otherwise be available to year-round residents looking for housing
because of type, size, location and price point, or because the owners occupy them for part of the year.
Many of these properties would not viably serve as year-round housing at all— 9% of the AirDNA
inventory is hotels and hostels, B&Bs, and “unique” listings (e.g., tents, treehouses, caves, etc.) (Figure 23).
Of the total AirDNA inventory, the Study Team identified 57% percent that are directly relevant to the
supply of year-round homes—defined as an entire single family or multifamily unit, available more than 3
months out of the year.
21
Note that the count of overall seasonal homes will likely incorporate most full-time short-term rentals, and
may exclude short-term rentals that are used as a primary residence most of the year.
16.1%
16.5%
17.2%
16.5%
84%
84%
83%
83%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2010 2016 2021
32
Figure 23: Short-Term Rentals by Typology, April 2022 - 2023
Source: AirDNA 2023. All properties with at least one reservation in the past year.
Further, not all short-term rentals would be available at a price point affordable to the median renter if
offered on the private market, whether due to size, location, or high-end design. Excluding luxury rentals
and rentals with more than 3 bedrooms from the data, the Study Team found that about 33% of the
short-term rental stock is reasonably comparable to naturally occurring affordable housing (NOAH) on
the market based on size and quality. In each region, the total number of current short-term rentals that
meet this criteria range from just 0.6% to 1.4% of the total housing supply (Figure 24).
Figure 24: Short-Term Rental Inventory by Region, 2021
Source: AirDNA 2021
71%
20%
4%
3%
House/villa Apt/Condo/Loft Unique B&B Hotel/Hostel
1,773
856
7,644
1,569
3,940
1,672
825
5,320
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Central Western Northeastern Coastal
Hotel rooms and other non-viable homes Luxury and >3 Bedroom Rental
Comparable to NOAH Homes
1.37% of Regional
Housing Supply
0.61% of Regional
Housing Supply
0.78% of Regional
Housing Supply
33
Concentration of short-term rentals is notably varied across the state, however, and conversion to short-
term rental units may be putting more significant pressure on housing markets in areas with a high
concentration of seasonal homes and heavy tourist demand, or in locations where this is a small number
of homes overall. In Hancock County, for example, active short term rental inventory made up close to
10% of the total housing stock, and those that might otherwise be comparable to NOAH housing
22
made
up about 3% of the total stock. In Lincoln and Franklin Counties, short-term rentals made up just over 6%
of the total housing stock, and those comparable to NOAH housing made up 2.5% and 1.76% of the total
stock, respectively. For breakdown of short-term rental inventory by county, see Appendix Page 6.
Housing Availability and Affordability
The demand-side and supply-side trends described impact both affordability and availability in Maine’s
housing market, making it difficult for Mainers to find available housing that they can afford, especially in
the Coastal region. Improving this will require aligning housing supply with the amount, type and location
of homes needed by Maine’s existing and future households.
Rental Affordability
Median rent for a 2-bedroom unit, utilities included, has historically been unaffordable in Maine, meaning
that the median rent across the state exceeded the rent affordable to the median renter (under a
standard definition set by HUD, rent is considered “affordable” when it does not exceed 30% of monthly
income) (Figure 25). Between 2016 and 2021, Maine saw a significant uptick in median rents, along with
rising median incomes, a trend that has occurred nationally.
Figure 25: Rental Affordability in Maine, 2000 - 2020
Source: MaineHousing Rental Affordability Index
22
Luxury units and large homes with over 3 bedrooms removed.
$737
$825
$857
$847
$834
$810
$826
$850
$965
$976
$658
$675
$696
$720
$746
$729
$746
$754
$770
$956
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
$1,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2020
Median 2-Bedroom Rent
(With Utilities)
Rent Affordable to the Median
Renter Household Income
34
Rental affordability has been an increasing challenge in recent years. In many places, rents have
increased more quickly than wages. Rent in the Portland MSA increased by 12% in 2021 while renter
household incomes increased by about 8%; before the Covid-19 pandemic, renter wages were increasing
faster than rents in the Portland MSA (Figure 26). Recent inflation in the rental housing market has likely
exacerbated this trend.
Figure 26: Portland MSA Median Renter Income Versus Median Rent, Year Over Year Percent
Change, 2016 – 2021
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year 2021, Zillow 2023
In the Augusta area, rents have been increasing faster than median renter household incomes since 2017;
in 2020, however, the median renter income fell by close to 2% while rents continued to rise by 9%. In
2021, rents rose by 14%, close to twice as fast as median renter income, which rose by 8%. The Bangor
area, which prior to 2021 had seen faster income growth than rent growth, saw rents rise by 12% in 2021
relative to median renter income growth of only 4%.
The majority of renter households below 60% of Area Median Income (AMI) are cost burdened in Maine
(Figure 27). This held steady from 2016 to 2021, with a modest decline in cost burden for the lowest
income renters, who may be supported by new subsidized affordable housing development (see
Appendix Page 7). Renters in the Coastal Region experience the highest rates of cost burden, with the
exception of the lowest income renters, around 80% of whom are cost burdened or severely cost
burdened across all three regions.
4% 4% 4% 4%
11%
12%
4%
6% 6%
5%
7%
8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Median Rent
Rent Affordable to the Median
Household
35
Figure 27: Share of Renters Cost Burdened by Region, 2021
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) 2021
Throughout the state, moderate and lower density building types support affordability for renter
households making less than 80% of AMI (Figure 28). While single family rentals tend to be affordable to
households making more than 80% of AMI across the state, over 60% of the homes affordable to renter
households making less than 50% AMI are in moderate density rental buildings, or those with between 2
and 49 rental units.
Figure 28: Rental Housing Types Affordable by Income Bracket in Maine, 2021
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) 2021
19%
24%
22%
30%
27%
29%
47%
30%
37%
75%
59%
57%
93%
79%
92%
98%
93%
96%
18%
17%21%
46%
43%
53%
50%
60%
50%
24%
35%
42%
19%
6%
5%
63%
59%
58%
24%
30%
18%
Northeastern
Coastal
Central Western
11%
18%
20%
27%
44%
52%
38%
52%
61%
53%
31%
19%
26%
16%
9%
10%
14%
15%
19%
3%
2%
5%
7%
14%
5%
11%
7%
4%
3%
Less than 30% AMI
30-50% AMI
50-60% AMI
60%-80% AMI
80%-100% AMI
100% AMI+
Single-Family Home 2-9 Units 10-49 Units 50+ Units Mobile Home
<30% AMI
30-50% AMI
50-60% AMI
60-80% AMI
80-100% AMI
100% + AMI
Severely Cost
Burdened
Cost
Burdened
Not Cost
Burdened
36
Housing affordability by building typology and region are not all consistent with statewide data. The
Coastal region has a distribution most similar to the state, while the Central Western and Northeastern
regions have a higher share of 10 or more unit homes affordable to homes over 100% AMI. The Central
Western region also has a notably higher proportion of mobile homes across all income levels. A full
breakdown of regional housing distribution by Area Median Income can be found in Appendix Page 7.
Homeownership Affordability
Until recently, Maine had a relatively affordable homeownership market, meaning the cost of purchasing
a home has been relatively aligned with the purchasing capacity of the median household. Purchasing a
home is considered affordable to a household if the costs of ownership, including a mortgage, property
taxes, and insurance, do not exceed 30% of total household income.
In recent years, however, the demand- and supply-side drivers described above, in addition to
macroeconomic trends such as rising interest rates, have caused a significant divergence between
the income needed to purchase a home in Maine and the actual median income of Mainers, who
now need to make over $100,000 annually to afford the median home price (Figure 29).
Figure 29: Purchasing Capacity Over Time, 2000 - 2022
23
Source: MaineHousing 2022
Home sales prices since 2022 have been concentrated in the $200,000 - $400,000 range. As of July 2023,
the median sales price in the state was $387,400, a 9% increase from the prior year and a 63% increase
from July 2019
24
. These prices are generally relatively affordable to in-migrants, who are on average
higher income than existing residents, but mostly unaffordable to the average existing resident in Maine,
and even less so to the average existing Maine renter (Figure 30). Given Maine’s historic affordability, it is
likely that higher income existing and new homeowners are “underhoused” or buying down market,
increasing competition for moderate income homebuyers.
23
Purchasing capacity over time is provided based on Maine Housing Methodology, which uses average
property tax rate by county and assumes 28% as the cost burden threshold.
24
Redfin 2023.
$37,968
$49,747
$40,098
$47,981
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Income Required to
Purchase Median-Price
Home
Median Household
Income
$106,225
$68,316
37
Figure 30: Maine Home Sales by Price Point, 2022 - 2023
Source: Maine MLS Data 2023, Internal Revenue Service 2021, American Community Survey 5-Year 2021
Home sale prices vary significantly by region and are highest in the Coastal Region, particularly in
Cumberland and York Counties, with an average sale price of $434,000 (Figure 31). The median home sale
price in the Northeastern and Central Western Regions are $204,000 and $270,000 respectively in 2023.
Figure 31: Median Home Sales Price by County, 2023
Cumberland
Hancock
Knox
Lincoln
Sagadahoc
Waldo
York
Androscoggin
Franklin
Kennebec
Oxford
Piscataquis
Somerset
Aroostook
Penobscot
Washington
Source: Redfin 2023
1,107
2,542
3,651
3,375
2,166
1,323
870
584
1,331
413
449
327
193
421
507
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
0-100k 101k-200k 201k-300k 301k-400k 401k-500k 501k-600k 601k-700k 701k-800k 801k+
Manufactured Homes
Condominium
Single Family
$545K
$407K
$419K
$450K
$405K
$353K
$460K
$329K
$250K
$303K
$324K
$193K
$224K
$127K
$275K
$211K
Affordable
to existing
renters
Affordable to average
existing resident
Affordable
to average
in-migrant
Coastal
Central Western
Northeastern
38
Despite the historic affordability of the homeownership market, 20% of homeowners still experienced
cost burden in 2021, a 4% decrease from 2016 (Figure 32). Cost burden for homeowners remained level
from 2016 to 2021 for the lowest income households but decreased for all other income groups. Given
data limitations on measuring cost burden in real-time, this likely does not fully capture the impact on cost
burden of the most recent home price increases.
Figure 32: Share of Owners Cost Burden Over Time in Maine, 2016 – 2021
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) 2021
Notably, very low-income homeowners have experienced very high-cost burden rates, even more than
renters of the same income. This may be partially driven by Maine’s large senior homeowner population;
senior homeowners in Maine tend to be lower income than other households and rely on fixed
incomes, and in aggregate face higher rates of cost burden.
Regionally, owner cost burden rates are highest in the Coastal Region, likely due in part to significantly
higher home values (Figure 33).
16%
16%
37%
44%
55%
63%
62%
71%
74%
79%
93%
95%
19%
21%
31%
31%
27%
26%
28%
23%
22%
18%
6%
65%
63%
32%
26%
18%
11%
10%
6%
2021
2016
Severely
Cost
Burdened
Cost
Burdened
Not Cost
Burdened
<30% AMI
30-50% AMI
50-60% AMI
100+% AMI
80-100% AMI
60-80% AMI
39
Figure 33: Share of Owners Cost Burdened by Region, 2021
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) 2021
Overall, the availability of homes in Maine is declining while costs relative to incomes are rising. This
crunch in the housing market is being driven by demand-side shocks including sudden in-migration and
need for additional workers to support Maine’s economy, and supply-side pressures including limited
housing production and a rising number of homes in need of reinvestment due to poor condition. To
improve housing availability and affordability for Mainers, Maine will need to increase housing production
and reinvestment aligned with the amount, type and location of housing needed by both existing and
future households.
18%
13%
19%
46%
40%
49%
62%
59%
73%
74%
70%
72%
81%
76%
85%
96%
94%
97%
18%
20%
28%
29%
31%
32%
26%
29%
21% 19%
23%
25%
19%
14%
5%
64%
67%
53%
25%
28%
19%
Northeastern
Central Western
Coastal
Not Cost
Burdened
Cost
Burdened
Severely
Cost
Burdened
<30% AMI
50-60% AMI
30-50% AMI
60-80% AMI
80-100% AMI
100+% AMI
40
How many homes does Maine need today?
Quantifying how many homes Maine needs today to improve both availability and affordability for
Mainers requires measuring how many homes should have been built or reinvested in in recent years
(historic underproduction) to support population and job growth with stable availability. Addressing this
historic underproduction is a State policy priority that aims to ensure affordability for all Mainers while
supporting the economic health of the State. In some areas of the state, addressing historic
underproduction might reflect the need for new homes to address population and economic
growth, while in other areas of the state that have not seen significant population growth, this
may reflect the need to invest in or replace aging housing stock that is deteriorating past its useful
life.
If the existing housing deficit continues to grow, Maine will struggle to support economic growth or
maintain its existing economic activity, and it will become increasingly difficult and costly to address
affordability challenges for low- and moderate-income residents. Existing residents with changing
housing needs won’t have the flexibility to move within their existing housing markets. Lack of homes will
also inhibit the growth of Maine’s labor force and economy, which could pull from out of state if there
were sufficient places for new residents to live. Aligning housing development with economic and
demographic trends will help support Maine’s economy and stabilize housing prices for existing residents.
Historic Underproduction
Historic Underproduction includes two components: the availability deficit and the jobs : homes
deficit. The combination of these two measures is intended to capture both the homes needed now to
support healthy availability for existing households, as well as homes that would support households to
move to Maine and fill unfilled jobs. These deficit measures, defined in Figure 34, are based on the State’s
economic targets
25
.
Figure 34: Components of Historic Underproduction
Availability Deficit
The “availability deficit” measures the additional homes needed to create a healthy level of availability in
the housing market overall, with “true availability” representing homes that are vacant and available to
live in. This designation is a key component of the analysis, as not all homes that are defined as “vacant”
are available to be lived in. Availability rate is an important characteristic in a housing market as it allows
flexibility in housing choice. A 1:1 household to unit ratio with zero availability would make it almost
impossible for existing households to move and could not accommodate any growth in households.
25
The State Department of Labor targets an unemployment rate of 3.5% and a job openings rate of 3.0%.
Historic
Underproduction
Jobs : Homes Deficit
+
Availability Deficit
Not enough homes for a
functional housing market
Not enough homes to support
additional labor force needed
for existing job market
=
41
Measuring “true availability” requires an understanding of how vacancy is measured. There are many
different types of vacant units, some of which are not available to be occupied by households looking for
a home because they are seasonal homes, in foreclosure, or in need of repair, for example.
26
The Study Team measures “true availability” as the number of vacant for-sale and for-rent homes in the
market; in other words, homebuyers and prospective renters could access these homes when they need
to move (Figure 35).
Figure 35: Vacant Housing Stock Composition
Across the state of Maine, the availability rate has plummeted to 2.3% on average, well below
what is often considered to be a healthy rate of 5%. This is true for all regions in Maine (Figure 36).
These low availability rates indicate a general housing shortage that is putting pressure on regional
housing markets due to lack of available homes.
27
26
High level Vacancy categories in the American Community Survey includes Seasonal Homes, Other Vacant,
rented or sold not occupied, for migrant workers, vacant for rent and vacant for sale.
27
The true availability rate is taken as a percentage of total homes, where total homes are calculated as
occupied renter homes, occupied owned homes, vacant for rent and vacant for sale. The true availability is then
calculated as the percentage of vacant for rent and vacant for sale of the total homes.
Rented or Sold Not Occupied
For Migrant Workers
Seasonal
Homes
Available Units (Vacant For Rent and
For Sale)
Other
Vacant
42
Figure 36: Available and Occupied Housing Stock by Region, 2021
The Study Team calculated the homes needed in each region to achieve a target availability rate of 5%,
which would support broader affordability and availability for all Mainers (Figure 37).
Figure 37: Housing Stock including Target Availability Rate
Based on this target availability rate, the Study Team estimates that an additional 16,500 homes are
needed in Maine now to create a healthy rate of availability for existing residents (Table 6).
The need varies significantly by region and is the greatest in the Coastal Region – with about 9,300 units
needed to address the availability deficit. The Central Western and Northeastern regions have lower
availability needs at 4,900 and 2,300 respectively, reflecting lower populations and higher availability in
the Northeastern Region.
Table 6: Homes Needed to Meet Regional Availability Deficit
Region Units
Coastal Region 9,300
Central Western Region 4,900
Northeastern region 2,300
Statewide 16,500
Existing Occupied Homes
Occupied
97.9%
Available 2.1%
Existing Homes
Coastal Region
Existing Occupied Homes
Occupied
97.8%
Available 2.2%
Central Western Region
Existing Occupied Homes
Occupied
97.0%
Available 3.0%
Northeastern Region
Existing Occupied Homes
Occupied
95%
Available 5%
Needed Homes
Additional Homes
Vacant For Sale or Rent
+
43
Jobs : Homes Deficit
The “jobs : homes” deficit component of Historic Underproduction in Maine was developed by the Study
Team to measure the number of additional homes needed to house a labor force that can support
Maine’s current economy. This homes deficit is calculated using two components:
1. Deficit resulting from a tight labor market (based on a target unemployment rate)
2. Deficit resulting from unfilled job openings (based on a target job openings rate)
In collaboration with the Department of Labor and based on the State’s labor market goals, the Study
Team used a target unemployment rate of 3.5% and a target job openings
28
rate of 3.0% in this
analysis.
29
The unemployment rate reflects the percentage of the workforce that is unemployed at any given time;
these individuals are available to fill unfilled positions and are important for supporting a healthy labor
market. The job openings rate is the share of unfilled jobs within the overall job market. Every region in
Maine has an average annual unemployment rate, measured based on employment trends from May
2022 – April 2023, lower than the target 3.5%. Measured rates range from 2.4% in the coastal region to
3.1% in the Northeastern Region. The job openings rate for all regions exceeds DOL’s target rate of 3.0%,
ranging from 4.4% in the Northwestern Region to 9.2% in the Central Western Region (Table 7).
Table 7: Existing Unemployment and Job Openings by Region
Unemployment Rate
(Avg May 2022 – April 2023)
Job Openings Rate
30
(Avg May 2022 – April 2023)
Coastal Region 2.4% 6.1%
Central Western Region 2.9% 9.2%
Northeastern Region 3.1% 4.4%
Statewide 2.7% 6.5%
Unemployment and job openings targets are meant to bring labor supply and labor demand in the
state into better balance to support a healthy economy and ensure economic opportunity for all
Mainers.
• Unemployment Rate The target unemployment rate of 3.5% is reflective of a full employment
economy in which the overwhelming majority of people who want a job have one. In a full
employment economy, a small share of the labor force is experiencing unemployment, which is
often transitional. This might include people searching for a job because they have recently
entered or re-entered the labor force, people who may be seeking to change careers or those
who recently completed an educational or training program and are seeking a job that aligns with
their skills and preferences.
28
Job Openings Rate is defined as the percent of job openings in the labor market over the sum of total jobs
and job openings.
29
Measurements of unemployment and job listings are based on annual averages to account for seasonal
changes in the workforce.
30
Calculated using Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey gross numbers and allocating to regions based on
proportion of Lightcast data job openings over a one year period.
44
• Job Openings Rate A target job opening rate of 3.0% reflects a labor market in which most of the
labor demand in the state is met and there is a healthy balance between available job
opportunities and the number of unemployed job seekers throughout the state. Job openings
similarly capture labor market transitions where some employers are growing and seeking to
expand their staff levels while many others are seeking to fill an available job opening due to
replacement needs because the incumbent job holder has retired, accepted a promotion,
switched careers, or otherwise left a job.
Better aligning job openings with unemployment requires additional workers to fill those jobs, and with a
low unemployment rate, many of those workers will need to come from out of state. Without homes
that can accommodate those additional households at a price point they can afford, Maine will
continue to struggle to sustain healthy labor market conditions, which will harm local businesses.
The job openings rate is 6.5% statewide on average over the last year and is down from a pandemic level
high of 8.1% in 2021
31
, but remains elevated compared with pre-pandemic averages. Since March 2022,
the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to reduce inflation, which had reached a 40 year high of
9.1% in June of 2022
32
. Due to these ongoing changes, the Study Team has selected an alternate base
conditions job openings rate that reflects an elevated condition to the pre-pandemic average, but not as
severe as the current measurements reflected by the May 2022 – April 2023 average (Table 8).
Table 8: Job Openings Rates for Historic Conditions, Existing Conditions and Modified Near-Term
Conditions
Job Openings Rate
33
(Avg
May 2022 – April 2023)
Job Openings Rate 5-year
Regional averages (2015-
2019)
Job Openings Rate
Midpoint
Coastal Region 6.1% 4.5% 5.3%
Central Western Region 9.2% 4.4% 6.8%
Northeastern Region 4.4% 4.0% 4.2%
Statewide 6.5% 4.4% 5.5%
To calculate the number of homes needed to support this target scenario, the Study Team measured the
additional workers needed to achieve these target labor market conditions. This number represents the
additional workers necessary to reduce the job openings rate and support an employment rate reflective
of a full employment economy. See Figure 38 for the Coastal Region example.
31
JOLTS Seasonally Adjusted July 2021
32
TED: The Economics Daily. (2022). Consumer Prices up 9.1 percent over the year ended June 2022, largest
increase in 40 years. BLS https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2022/consumer-prices-up-9-1-percent-over-the-year-
ended-june-2022-largest-increase-in-40-years.htm
33
Calculated using Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey gross numbers and allocating to regions based on
proportion of Lightcast data job openings over a one-year period.
45
Figure 38: Existing and Target Labor Force Conditions: Coastal Region Example
Based on the resulting workers needed, the Study Team measured the number of homes needed to
accommodate this additional labor force. The Study Team applied a jobs : homes ratio to these numbers
by region, which is based on the existing jobs : homes ratio but with a 5% availability rate. By
incorporating all occupied homes, this ratio accounts for working, non-working and unemployed
populations, and the number of jobs supported by one home, taking into account a 5% market availability
rate. Figure 39 reflects an example ratio of 1.15, indicating that in the Coastal Region, one home for every
1.15 jobs would incorporate a healthy availability rate.
Figure 39: Jobs : Homes Ratio Calculation for the Coastal Region
The Study Team calculated this ratio for each region and used it to measure the homes required to house
the additional workers needed by region. See Figure 40 for the Coastal Regional example.
Figure 40: Homes Needed to Support Target Workforce Conditions: Coastal Region Example
Based on this analysis, the additional labor force needed to support Maine’s existing economy is
approximately 24,100 workers, who would require 22,000 additional homes statewide to account for a
healthy availability rate. Accounting for regional differences in labor force needs, there is a shortage of
11,900 homes in the Coastal Region, 8,100 homes in the Central Western Region and 2,000 homes in the
Northeastern Region (Table 9).
Existing Employed Labor Force
368K
Job Listings
20K / 5.3%
Unemployed
9K / 2.4%
+14K workers
added to
labor force
Existing Employed Labor Force
368K
Reduction to
11K Job listings
Unemployed 14K
Existing Occupied
Homes: 304K
Employed Labor Force: 368K
Required Available
Homes: 16K (5%)
Jobs : Homes Ratio
1.15
+14K workers
added to labor force
Existing Homes
Existing Employed Labor Force
368K
12k Jobs : Homes Deficit to
accommodate new workers
46
Table 9: Workers and Homes Needed to Address Jobs : Homes Deficit
Required Workers Target Jobs Housing Ratio Additional Homes Needed
Coastal Region 13,700 1.15 11,900
Central Western Region 8,400 1.03 8,100
Northeastern Region 2,000 1.01 2,000
Statewide 24,100 22,000
Economic and labor force conditions are constantly changing, and the State will have to monitor labor
force conditions and make adjustments to the target rates as needed to support evolving goals.
Including both historic underproduction and the jobs : homes deficit, Maine needs 21,200 homes in the
Coastal Region, 13,000 homes in the Central Western Region, and 4,300 homes for the
Northeastern region (Table 10).
Table 10: Historic Underproduction by Region, 2021
Region
Availabilitly
Deficit
Jobs : Homes Deficit
Total Historic
Underproduction
Coastal 9,300 11,900 21,200
Central Western
4,900 8,100 13,000
Northeastern
2,300 2,000 4,300
Maine 16,500 22,000 38,500
Income Distribution
In addition to the number of homes that Maine needs to sustain and grow its economy, it is important to
measure the cost of the homes needed to support affordability in the market. The Study Team allocated
both the availability deficit and the jobs : homes deficit by price point as an example of how production
targets can be distributed, however, regional and local planning work will need to be done to further
allocate the housing types and price points that will support affordability.
The Study Team calculated affordable monthly rent by income based on a monthly housing cost burden
of 28%, including a utility allowance using the average of Statewide HUD utility allowance schedules
34
. The
Study Team calculated affordable home purchase price including monthly mortgage payments, property
taxes, utilities and insurance (Table 11).
34
MaineHousing’s Affordability Index measures affordability at 28% of monthly household income.
47
Table 11: Affordable Rent and Home Prices by Income Group, 2023
Income Range Affordable Monthly Rent
35
Affordable Home Price
Less than 20K < 80 N/A
20K - 35K 81 – 430 < 36,500
35K - 50K 431 – 780 36,501 – 90,700
50K - 75K 781 – 1,360 90,701 – 180,900
75K- 100K 1,361 – 1,950 180,901 – 271,200
100K - 150K 1,951 – 3,110 271,201 – 451,700
150K+ 3,111 + 451,701 +
Availability Deficit Income Distribution:
The availability deficit impacts all households as people seek to move. This may include those who are
hoping to downsize to age in place, those who have growing households, households with a change in
income and desire to relocate because of it, households with a change in job location, and other reasons
for relocation. One way to view the allocation of this deficit is to distribute it across the income
distribution of the region (Table 12).
Table 12: Existing Household Income Distribution
Household
Income
Coastal Central Western Northeastern
Less than 20K 11% 16% 18%
20K - 35K 11% 15% 17%
35K - 50K 11% 15% 14%
50K - 75K 18% 18% 18%
75K- 100K 15% 13% 13%
100K - 150K 18% 14% 13%
150K+ 16% 8% 8%
A limitation of this methodology is that it does not fully capture greater need at low- and moderate-
income levels. Low- and moderate-income households are more constrained in their choices and more
likely to pay more than they can afford in housing costs. It is important to increase the availability of
homes at different price points, with an emphasis on homes that are affordable to lower income
35
Apartment unit monthly rents were calculated assuming 28% of income towards housing expenses less utility
allowance. Utility allowance was calculated using HUD schedules assuming a 2 bedroom garden apartment
unit.
48
households. Methods of reallocation to address the need at lower income levels may vary by geographic
region and respond to specific needs of certain areas of the state. Adjustment to lower incomes should
account for what proportion of the population within which income groups is the highest cost burdened
for both renters and homeowners. Methods that include this factor will have a better chance of
addressing the need at income levels that are paying the highest share of their household income in
home costs.
The allocation of the Availability Deficit based on existing income distribution varies by regional
characteristics, with the Northeastern and Central Western having greater need at lower household
incomes than the Coastal Region (Table 13). Northeastern and Central Western Regions have 49% and
46% of households respectively at household incomes less than 50K, while the Coastal region proportion
of households less than 50k is 34%.
Table 13: Allocation of Availability Deficit Based on Existing Household Income Distribution
36
Household Income Coastal Central Western Northeastern
Regional Totals 9,400 4,900 2,300
Less than 20K 1,100 780 420
20K - 35K 1,000 760 380
35K - 50K 1,000 730 320
50K - 75K 1,700 880 410
75K- 100K 1,400 650 290
100K - 150K 1,700 690 290
150K+ 1,500 410 190
Jobs : Homes Deficit Income Distribution
To allocate the homes needed to fill the jobs : homes deficit by price point, the Study Team aligned the
wages of existing job openings with home prices that would be affordable to those wages. The
methodology used to arrive at this distribution included a multistep process that reviewed job listing data
for wages and aligned those wages with typical household incomes associated with them (Table 14).
37
This distribution allows job listing wages to be allocated to household incomes by accounting for
households with more than one earner.
38
This distribution is a tool to help regions and municipalities plan for housing that households can afford
based on available jobs, ensuring that they can move to and stay in Maine.
36
Income Distributions are allocated based on regional numbers and rounded to the tens for counts in the
hundreds, and hundreds for counts over a thousand. Due to rounding, numbers may not sum exactly to
regional or state numbers.
37
The Study Team calculated a wage distribution using job listing wages based on a review of job listings over a
12 month period, June 2022 - May 2023.
38
Using the Public Use Microdata Sample, the Study Team used regional household averages in Maine,
Vermont and New Hampshire to estimate the likely total household income of individuals who hold similar jobs
across the region. For additional detail about this analysis, see Appendix Page 12.
49
Table 14: Estimated Household Income Distribution for Job Listings by Region
Household Income Coastal Central Western Northeastern
Less than 20K 0.6% 0.7% 0.6%
20K - 35K 5.5% 4.4% 8.4%
35K - 50K 10.4% 7.9% 10.6%
50K - 75K 16.7% 16.8% 20.4%
75K- 100K 19.3% 20.3% 18.9%
100K - 150K 26.9% 28.9% 23.6%
150K+ 20.6% 21.0% 17.6%
Using the resulting household income distribution, the Study Team allocated the jobs : homes regional
deficits by the estimated household incomes for workers needed to fill open jobs in each region (Table
15).
Table 15: Allocation of Jobs : Homes Deficit to Household Incomes Based on Wages of Open Job
Listings
39
Household Income Coastal Central Western Northeastern
Regional Totals 11,900 8,100 2,000
Less than 20K 70 50 10
20K - 35K 660 360 170
35K - 50K 1,230 640 210
50K - 75K 2,000 1,400 410
75K- 100K 2,300 1,600 380
100K - 150K 3,200 2,300 470
150K+ 2,500 1,700 350
Historic Underproduction Geographic Distribution
Across regions, individual jurisdictions are contributing more or less to housing demand based on job
growth, demographic and migration trends, and other factors, including the existing inventory of available
39
Income Distributions are allocated based on regional numbers and rounded to the tens for counts in the
hundreds, and hundreds for counts over a thousand. Due to rounding, numbers may not sum exactly to
regional or state numbers.
50
housing and the share of seasonal homes. Housing need in each region is impacted by the existing
conditions and trends of individual jurisdictions and counties, and as such requires both local and
regional approaches to tackling housing production needs.
To measure local contributions to housing demand, the Study Team considered both population share
and job share of each county. Weighting allocation by both population and jobs helps ensure that housing
to address the State’s historic underproduction is being added in places where jobs are, both to support
households in living close to where they work and also to ensure that towns and cities that are growing
economically are also accommodating the population needed to support that growth. This avoids issues
of decreasing affordability when housing is not provided where job growth exists, and unnecessary
development in areas where there may not be as significant job or population growth.
There are many ways to allocate housing to more granular geographies across Maine, many of which
would incorporate unique criteria specific to certain areas of the State, particularly due to the varying
growth trends across Maine. For purposes of this study, the Study Team weighted housing need based on
population and jobs shares in each region. Using the Coastal Region as an example, the greatest
allocation of homes based on this methodology is to Cumberland County, which represents 42% of the
region’s population and 54% of the region’s jobs (Table 16). In the Central Western region Kennebec has
the greatest weighted allocation and in the Northeastern region Penobscot has the greatest weighted
allocation.
51
Table 16: County Level Distributions Historic Underproduction
40
Counties Population Share Job Share Weighted Allocation
Historic
Underproduction
Maine Historic
Underproduction
38,500
Hancock County 8% 7% 7% 1,500
Cumberland County 42% 54% 48% 10,200
Knox County 6% 5% 5% 1,100
Lincoln County 5% 3% 4% 870
Sagadahoc County 5% 5% 5% 1,100
Waldo County 6% 3% 4% 900
York County 29% 22% 26% 5,500
Piscataquis County 4% 4% 4% 510
Androscoggin County 28% 30% 29% 3,800
Franklin County 8% 7% 7% 900
Kennebec County 32% 39% 35% 4,600
Oxford County 15% 11% 13% 1,700
Somerset County 13% 10% 12% 1,500
Aroostook County 27% 24% 25% 1,100
Penobscot County 61% 66% 64% 2,700
Washington County 12% 9% 11% 460
40
County Distributions are allocated based on regional numbers and rounded to the tens for counts in the
hundreds, and hundreds for counts over a thousand. Due to rounding, numbers may not sum exactly to
regional or state numbers.
52
How many homes will Maine need to accommodate future
population growth?
Overview
The State of Maine is projected to grow by about 3% over the next decade, with growth primarily
concentrated in the Coastal region (Table 19). In addition to the housing that Maine needs now, the
state will need additional housing this decade to accommodate population change and support both new
household formation and in-migration.
The Maine State Economist develops population projections every two years to accommodate changing
demographic and growth conditions. While the state overall is growing, it is important to note that not all
areas in the state are projected to grow in the coming decade. However, even in places where overall
population is aging and declining, there is still need for housing production and reinvestment; in fact,
household formation generally increases these circumstances (children of an aging population move into
their own homes and some existing households split up). For example, while Aroostook, Piscataquis and
Somerset Counties are all projected to see a modest total population decline by 2030, all of those
counties will still see a net gain in households in that time period, requiring additional homes. Further, as
these regions face a declining workforce, new homes at affordable price points will be essential to
attracting workers to the region and ensuring that existing younger households can stay.
Table 17: Estimated Population Change, 2020-2030
County
2020 Population
2030 Population
% Growth
Added /Lost
People
Northeastern Region
Aroostook
66,994
66,937
-0.1%
-57
Penobscot
152,007
153,327
0.9%
1,320
Washington
31,062
33,555
8.0%
2,493
Central Western Region
Androscoggin
111,039
113,477
2.2%
2,438
Franklin
29,418
29,603
0.6%
185
Kennebec
123,754
130,259
5.3%
6,505
Oxford
57,849
58,321
0.8%
472
Piscataquis
16,768
15,935
-5.0%
-833
Somerset
50,404
49,781
-1.2%
-623
Coastal Region
Cumberland
303,312
308,124
1.6%
4,812
Hancock
55,460
56,707
2.3%
1,247
Knox
40,609
41,130
1.3%
521
Lincoln
35,192
35,364
0.5%
172
Sagadahoc
36,688
36,921
0.6%
233
Waldo
39,635
42,405
7.0%
2,770
York
212,089
225,816
6.5%
13,727
Statewide
Maine
1,362,280
1,397,663
2.6%
35,383
Source: Maine State Economist 2023
53
Recent shifts in population growth due to unexpected global and economic events, including the COVID-
19 pandemic, demonstrate the unpredictable nature of population projections. As such, the State will
need to continue to monitor population change to better understand long term expectations. It is not
certain whether recent growth is a longer-term trend or was a short-term, Covid-induced change.
Despite the uncertainty, Maine should continue to plan for population and household growth, which is
crucial for maintaining the health of Maine’s economy. Planning for housing to support that growth will
ensure that the increased demand over time will not exceed the supply of housing, causing prices to rise.
Accommodating Population Growth
The Maine State Economist’s population projections anticipate 35,000 additional residents in
Maine by 2030. This change in population varies by region, with the Northeastern region projected to
grow by 1.5%, Central Western by 2.1%, and Coastal by 3.25%. Maine’s statewide growth of 2.6% is
modest compared to the State of New Hampshire, which is expected to grow by 6.95% between 2020 and
2030
41
, and is also less than Massachusetts which is expected to grow 4.21% between 2020 and 2030
4243
.
Based on average household characteristics and the age distribution of the projected population,
these residents translate to approximately 37,000 new households statewide by 2030. Future
housing will need to accommodate not only these new households but also a healthy availability rate and
an allowance for seasonal/alternate home use. The additional allocation for seasonal homes/alternate
use homes assumes that the relative demand for seasonal homes remains constant as the population
grows. This assumption is based on historic data, which has indicated that while seasonal homes as a
percentage of total homes has fluctuated slightly it has stayed relatively constant since 2000 (Table 20).
Table 18: Seasonal Homes and Alternate Use as a Percentage of Total Homes Over Time
Year 2000 2010 2016 2021
Coastal 16.6% 17.2% 17.8% 17.1%
Northeastern 12.7% 12.8% 14.6% 13.9%
Central Western 17.5% 17.7% 19.8% 18.8%
Without accommodating the demand for seasonal homes and alternate uses, seasonal buyers and other
users will acquire more of the housing stock that could otherwise be occupied by full-time residents
(Figure 41).
41
Scardamalia, Robert. (2022). State, County, and Municipal Population Projections: 2020 – 2050. New
Hampshire Department of Business and Economic Affairs, Office of Planning and Development.
https://www.nheconomy.com/getmedia/0205c62d-9c30-4b00-9c9e-d81d8f17b8b3/NH-Population-Projections-
2020-2050-Final-Report-092022.pdf
42
UMass Donahue Institute. (2018). Regional Population Projections for 2020 RTPs.
https://www.mass.gov/doc/projections-final-for-rtps-0/download
43
The state of Vermont projected an increase of 2.5%, however projections were executed in 2013 and do not
reflect recent national trends.
54
Figure 41: Future Housing Need Methodology: Coastal Region Example
Jurisdictions across the state already add housing every year. On average from 2016 - 2021, The Coastal,
Central Western and Northeastern regions permitted 3,400, 1,000, and 400 units respectively. This
analysis simply measures the number of new homes that would align with projected population growth,
within a range of +/- 0.5% to accommodate uncertainty around future growth. Accounting for varying
population projections in each region and a steady availability rate of 5%, between 38,000 and 46,000
additional units will be needed by 2030 to accommodate households and associated vacant and
seasonal units for a healthy housing market (Table 21).
44
Table 19: Future Need Scenario Low / High Range 2021 – 2030 Growth
Region Change in Households
Homes to
Accommodate
Availability
Homes to
Accommodate
Seasonal Use
Total Homes Needed
Coastal 19,000 – 21,900 1,000 – 1,200 4,200 – 4,900 24,200 – 28,000
Central Western
7,800 – 9,300 410 – 490 1,500 – 1,900 9,700 – 11,700
Northeastern
3,000 – 4,700 160 - 250 790– 1,100 4,000 – 6,100
29,800 – 35,900 1,600 – 1,900 6,500 – 7,900 37,900 – 45,800
Annualizing the total homes needed over nine years results in 2,700 – 3,100 homes for the Coastal
Region, 1,100 – 1,300 homes for the Central Western Region, and 430 – 660 homes for the Northeastern
Region (Table 22). Any adjustments to population projections will result in adjustments to production
44
Population projections provided by the State Economist are for population growth during the period between
the year 2020 and 2030. Since data sources for this study are aligned with 2021 or a 2021 equivalent, a year of
growth demand is removed from the total. Adjusted housing need by region for the time period 2021 – 2030 is
summarized in Table 14. Adjusted Regional Housing Demand for time period 2021 - 2020. The total adjusted
projected need to accommodate future growth from 2021 – 2030 across all regions in Maine is 42,200 units.
New Households, 2020 - 2030
23K
Occupied
95%
Available
5%
Total New Homes with Availability: 24K
New Households, 2020 - 2030
23K
Occupied
100%
1.2K New homes for
Availability Rate
New Households, 2020 - 2030
23K
Occupied
79%
Seasonal/Alternate Use
17%
Total New Housing Stock: 29K Homes
5.1K New homes for
seasonal/alternate use
55
targets. Similar to the jobs : homes deficit, any anticipated changes in future conditions regarding slower
or faster growth than expected would impact homes needed to address future growth.
Table 20: Annualized Production Goals Future Need, 2021 – 2030
Region
Annualized Production Goal
Range: Future Need
Coastal 2,700 – 3,100
Central Western 1,100 – 1,300
Northeastern 430 - 660
Future Need Geographic Allocation
The future need projections are based on the Maine State Economist’s population projections, which
occur every two years and are output at the county level for the State of Maine.
While the state overall is growing, not all areas in the state are projected to grow in the coming decade.
Certain counties show much greater additional housing need to accommodate population change. Need
is sized based on population shifts including aging, dissolution of multi-person households resulting in
additional household formations and anticipated economic changes. Aroostook, Piscataquis and
Somerset Counties are projected to see a modest total population decline by 2030, with Piscataquis
seeing a decrease in the low growth scenario. However, in all other scenarios there will likely be a net gain
in households in that time period, requiring additional homes (Table 21).
56
Table 21: County Level Distributions, Future Need by 2030
Counties Future Need Low
Future Need High
Maine Future Need 37,900 45,800
Hancock County 1,900 2,200
Cumberland County 7,200 8,600
Knox County 1,400 1,700
Lincoln County 880 1,100
Sagadahoc County 770 950
Waldo County 2,100 2,300
York County 10,100 11,100
Piscataquis County -30 110
Androscoggin County 2,200 2,700
Franklin County 820 1,000
Kennebec County 4,500 5,100
Oxford County 1,900 2,300
Somerset County 330 600
Aroostook County 720 1,100
Penobscot County 1,400 3,000
Washington County 1,700 1,900
Total Need
To arrive at the overall annual production need for the State for the nine years from 2021 – 2030, the
Study Team summed the annual production need for both historic underproduction and future need.
This assumes that historic underproduction and future need can be addressed incrementally. The
combined annual production needed to account for both historic underproduction and future need is
between 8,500 and 9,300 homes statewide per year (Table 22).
57
Table 22: Annualized Production Need 2021 – 2030
Annualized Future
Need
Annualized Historic
Underproduction
Need
Total Homes
Needed Annually
Coastal 2,700 – 3,100 2,400 5,100 – 5,500
Central Western 1,100 – 1,300 1,400 2,500 – 2,700
Northeastern 430 - 660 480 900 – 1,100
Total for Maine 4,200 – 5,100 4,300 8,500 – 9,300
The Study Team compared these annual production needs to building permit data released annually by
HUD. All regions will require an increase in production, with a range of 50% to 175% increase required to
achieve the high end of the production goals (Table 23). These numbers provide context for how much
more housing regions will need to permit compared to historical trends to address this need. While the
percent change in building permits needed in the Central and Northeastern Regions is higher than in the
Coastal Region, the need is much smaller overall. More than half of annual production needs are in the
Coastal Region, while the Northeastern Region would need to permit and build about 900 homes per year
to meet these goals.
Table 23. Annual Production Needs Benchmarked to Historic Permitting
Total Annual
Production
Need
5-year
average (2016
- 2021)
% Change in
Permits
Net Change in
permits
Coastal 5,100 – 5,500 3,400 50% - 62%
1,700 – 2,100
Central Western 2,500 – 2,700 1,000 150% - 170%
1,500 – 1,700
Northeastern 900 – 1,100 400 128% - 175% 510 - 700
Maine 8,500 – 9,300 4,800 77% - 94% 3,700 – 4,500
Source: Annual units permitted by county as measured by HUD, average 2016 - 2021
58
Next Steps and Implementation
In response to the requirements established in LD 2003, this Study measures the number of homes
needed to meet the housing and economic development goals established by the State of Maine. The
next step in the process will be to set housing production and reinvestment targets at the local level and
to consider the different housing typologies that can support housing production across the income
spectrum. To move from the regional level to the local level will involve consideration of local obstacles
such as available infrastructure, development capacity and other factors. It will also involve dialogue
among communities about where and how to accommodate growth within the region.
The assessment of regional housing need and the local targets will need to be updated periodically to
reflect changing conditions. In particular, there is considerable uncertainty around whether recent in-
migration is a longer-term trend or a short-term impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. The State and regional
partners will need to establish a process to evaluate and modify production targets based on changing
housing, labor force, demographic and population conditions and make those changes available to the
public.
In order for stakeholders to monitor these changing conditions and track progress towards local housing
production targets, the State will be providing an online data dashboard of baseline housing conditions at
the state, county, and municipal level that will be updated on a periodic basis. Moving forward, improved
collection of both building permitting and demolition data, as well as continuous tracking of vacancy
trends, will also be critical for monitoring new development.
Finally, there are a number of important issues in this report that deserve further study to ensure that
housing policy in Maine reflects changing conditions. In particular, more data and information is needed
to understand the specific housing needs of Maine’s aging population, asylum seekers and refugees, and
those who are facing housing quality issues and energy insecurity.
1
Appendix
Appendix Table 1: State of Maine’s Study Geographic Regions Defined
Counties
Cities
Towns
Northeastern Region
Aroostook
County
Caribou,
Presque Isle
Allagash, Amity, Ashland, Bancroft, Blaine, Bridgewater, Castle Hill, Caswell,
Chapman, Crystal, Dyer Brook, Eagle Lake, Easton, Fort Fairfield, Fort Kent,
Frenchville, Grand Isle, Hamlin, Hammond, Haynesville, Hersey, Hodgdon, Houlton,
Island Falls, Limestone, Linneus, Littleton, Ludlow, Madawaska, Mapleton, Mars Hill,
Masardis, Merrill, Monticello, New Canada, New Limerick, New Sweden, Oakfield,
Orient, Perham, Portage Lake, Saint Agatha, Saint Francis, Sherman, Smyrna,
Stockholm, Van Buren, Wade, Washburn, Westfield, Westmanland, Weston, and
Woodland
Penobscot
County
Bangor, Brewer
and Old Town
Alton, Bradford, Bradley, Burlington, Carmel, Charleston, Chester, Clifton, Corinna,
Corinth, Dexter, Dixmont, East Millinocket, Eddington, Edinburg, Enfield, Etna, Exeter,
Garland, Glenburn, Greenbush, Greenfield, Hampden, Hermon, Holden, Howland,
Hudson, Indian Island, Kenduskeag, Lagrange, Lakeville, Lee, Levant, Lincoln, Lowell,
Mattawamkeag, Maxfield, Medway, Milford, Millinocket, Mount Chase, Newburgh,
Newport, Orono, Orrington, Passadumkeag, Patten, Plymouth, Springfield, Stacyville,
Stetson, Veazie, Winn and Woodville
Washington
County
Calais and
Eastport
Addison, Alexander, Baileyville, Beals, Beddington, Centerville, Charlotte, Cherryfield,
Columbia, Columbia Falls, Cooper, Crawford, Cutler, Danforth, Deblois, Dennysville,
East Machias, Harrington, Indian Township, Jonesboro, Jonesport, Lubec, Machais,
Machiasport, Marshfield, Meddybemps, Milbridge, Northfield, Pembroke, Perry,
Princeton, Robbinston, Roque Bluffs, Steuben, Talmadge, Topsfield, Vanceboro,
Waite, Wesley, Whiting and Whitneyville
Central Western Region
Androscoggin
County
Auburn, and
Lewiston
Durham, Greene, Leeds, Lisbon, Livermore, Livermore Falls, Mechanic Falls, Minot,
Poland, Sabattus, Turner and Wales
Franklin
County
Avon, Carrabassett Valley, Carthage, Chesterville, Eustis, Farmington, Industry, Jay,
Kingfield, Madrid, New Sharon, New Vineyard, Phillips, Rangeley, Strong, Temple,
Weld and Wilton
Kennebec
County
Augusta,
Gardiner,
Hallowell and
Waterville
Albion, Belgrade, Benton, Chelsea, China, Clinton, Farmingdale, Fayette, Litchfield,
Manchester, Monmouth, Mount Vernon, Oakland, Pittston, Randolph, Readfield,
Rome, Sidney, Vassalboro, Vienna, Wayne, West Gardiner, Windsor, Winslow and
Winthrop
Oxford County
Andover, Bethel, Brownfield, Buckfield, Byron, Canton, Denmark, Dixfield, Fryeburg,
Gilead, Greenwood, Hanover, Hartford, Hebron, Hiram, Lovell, Mexico, Newry,
Norway, Otisfield, Oxford, Paris, Peru, Porter, Roxbury, Rumford, Stoneham, Stowe,
Sumner, Sweden, Upton, Waterford, West Paris and Woodstock
2
Piscataquis
County
Abbott, Atkinson, Beaver Cove, Bowerbank, Brownville, Dover-Foxcroft, Greenville,
Guilford, Medford, Milo, Monson, Parkman, Sangerville, Sebec, Shirley, Wellington
and Willimantic
Somerset
County
Anson, Athens, Bingham, Cambridge, Canaan, Cornville, Detroit, Embden, Fairfield,
Harmony, Hartland, Jackman, Madison, Mercer, Moose River, Moscow, New Portland,
Norridgewock, Palmyra, Pittsfield, Ripley, Saint Albans, Skowhegan, Smithfield, Solon
and Starks
Coastal Region
Cumberland
County
Portland, South
Portland, and
Westbrook
Baldwin, Bridgton, Brunswick, Cape Elizabeth, Casco, Cumberland, Falmouth,
Freeport, Gorham, Gray, Harpswell, Harrison, Naples, New Gloucester, North
Yarmouth, Pownal, Raymond, Scarborough, Sebago, Standish, Windham, and
Yarmouth
Hancock
County
Ellsworth
Amherst, Aurora, Bar Harbor, Blue Hill, Brooklin, Brooksvile, Bucksport, Castine,
Cranberry Isles, Dedham, Deer Isle, Eastbrook, Franklin, Frenchboro, Gouldsboro,
Great Pond, Hancock, Lamoine, Mariaville, Mount Desert, Orland, Osborn, Otis,
Penobscot, Sedgwick, Sorrento, Southwest Harbor, Stonington, Sullivan, Surry, Swans
Island, Tremont, Trenton, Verona, Waltham and Winter Harbor
Knox County
Rockland
Appleton, Camden, Cushing, Friendship, Hope, Isle au Haut, North Haven, Owls Head,
Rockport, St George, South Thomaston, Thomaston, Union, Vinalhaven, Warren and
Washington
Lincoln County
Wiscassett
Alna, Boothbay, Boothbay Harbor, Bremen, Bristol, Damariscotta, Dresden,
Edgecomb, Jefferson, Newcastle, Nobleboro, Somerville, South Bristol, Southport,
Waldoboro, Westport, Whitefield and Wiscasset
Sagadahoc
County
Bath
Arrowsic, Bowdoin, Bowdoinham, Georgetown, Phippsburg, Richmond, Topsham,
West Bath and Woolwich
Waldo County
Belfast
Belmont, Brooks, Burnham, Frankfort, Freedom, Islesboro, Jackson, Knox, Liberty,
Lincolnville, Monroe, Montville, Morrill, Northport, Palermo, Prospect, Searsmont,
Searsport, Stockton Springs, Swanville, Thorndike, Troy, Unity, Waldo and Winterport
York County
Biddeford and
Saco
Acton, Alfred, Arundel, Berwick, Buxton, Cornish, Dayton, Eliot, Hollis, Kennebunk,
Kennebunkport, Kittery, Lebanon, Limerick, Limington, Lyman, Newfield, North
Berwick, Ogunquit, Old Orchard Beach, Parsonsfield, Sanford, Shapleigh, South
Berwick, Waterboro, Wells and York
3
Review of Housing Production Goal National Precedents and their Methodologies
National Housing Production Goal Analysis precedents were reviewed in the development of the State of
Maine’s methodology. Three examples specifically reviewed were the California Regional Housing Need
Allocation, the Oregon Housing Needs Analysis, and Massachusetts Chapter 40B.
California Regional Housing Need Allocation
The California Regional Housing Need Allocation sets state and regional housing production goals and
requires local government’s zoning and housing plans to work towards achieving those goals. The State of
California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) sets the amount of new housing
units each region is required to produce within the income categories of Very Low (0 – 50% AMI), Low (50
– 80% AMI), Moderate (80% - 120% AMI) and Above Moderate Income (120% AMI +).
HCD sets the amount of housing needed by region using population projections from the California
Department of Finance and adjusted based on local characteristics of target vacancy, overcrowding and
share of cost-burdened households. The housing need is set every eight years for the next 8 year cycle.
After regional numbers are set, regional organizations then allocate a share of units to local jurisdictions
within their region. Local jurisdictions report progress towards their allocations to HCD annually using a
progress report template.
1
Oregon Housing Needs Analysis
In 2019, Oregon passed House Bill 2003 directing Oregon Housing and Community Services (OHCS) to
support housing needs as outlined by Oregon’s statewide land use planning program. Oregon’s model for
estimating regional housing need is called the Oregon Housing Needs Analysis (OHNA). This methodology
is used by OHCS to measure current housing need, historic underproduction, projected housing need
over the next 20 years, and housing need for those currently homeless. It also considers the impacts on
housing markets from vacation homes. The methodology incorporates guidance on the distribution of
unit affordability in a region, with the latest methodology suggesting that about 32% of Oregon’s housing
need should be affordable to households earning less than 60% of state median income. and allocates
this regional need to the local level with guidance on unit typologies (single family or multifamily). This is
intended to replace housing need calculations previously executed at the local level.
The OHNA also establishes local production targets for cities with populations over 10,000, which the
state tracks and evaluates regularly through a Housing Production Dashboard presenting data on
progress towards production targets. Furthermore, the state tracks ongoing housing equity indicators,
including cost burden and homeownership rates by race, age, and disability status.
2
1
Association of Bay Area Governments. (2020). Regional Housing Needs Allocation Proposed Methodology: San
Francisco Bay Area, 2023-2031.
https://abag.ca.gov/sites/default/files/rhna_methodology_report_2023-
2031_finalposting.pdf
Association of Bay Area Governments. (2021). Regional Housing Needs Allocations Frequently Asked Questions.
https://abag.ca.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2021-12/ABAG_2023-2031_RHNA_FAQ_Dec2021.pdf
2
Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development Oregon Housing and Community Services.
(2022). Oregon Housing Needs Analysis Legislative Recommendations Report: Leading with Production.
https://www.oregon.gov/lcd/UP/Documents/20221231_OHNA_Legislative_Recommendations_Report.pdf
4
Massachusetts Chapter 40B
Massachusetts 40B is a state statute that overrides local authority to block affordable housing
development in the State of Massachusetts. Chapter 40B enables Local Zoning Boards of Appeals to
approve affordable housing developments, with at least 20 – 25% of the units have long-term affordability
restrictions, under flexible rules. Chapter 40B is a controversial law as it allows developers of affordable
housing to appeal a local decision to the state if the community in which the developer is looking to build
has less than 10% of year-round housing as affordable housing, or less than 1.5% of its land area as
affordable housing.
Municipalities can receive a 1 or 2-year exemption from the developer appeals process through the
creation of a Housing Production Plan (HPP) and maintaining annual affordable housing growth of 0.5%.
Characteristics of approved plans include the following:
• Units must be part of a subsidized development built or operated by a public agency, non-profit
or limited dividend organization.
• A minimum of 25% of units must be income restricted at 80% AMI with restrictions for at least 30
years.
• The proposed development must be subject to a regulatory agreement and monitored by a
public agency or nonprofit organization.
• Owners must meet affirmative marketing requirements.
Implemented in 1969, this policy has a long history reflecting its successful implementation in the state
for the creation of housing in many communities. Many towns since the policy’s implementation have
exceeded the 10% threshold, a count that continuously increased throughout the 2000s. Chapter 40B has
produced over 60,000 units in over 1,200 developments and is considered responsible for approximately
34% of all housing production in Greater Boston from 2002 – 2006.
3
3
MassHousing. (2023). Chapter 40B and MassHousing. https://www.masshousing.com/en/programs-
outreach/planning-programs/40b
Citizens’ Housing and Planning Association. (2011). Fact Sheet on Chapter 40B The State’s Affordable Housing
Zoning Law.
https://www.chapa.org/sites/default/files/Fact%20Sheet%20on%20Chapter%2040B%202011%20update.pdf
5
Regional Area Median Income Percentage to Gross Household Income
PUMS data was used was used as a basis for existing conditions analysis throughout the report. To
understand household income levels at a more regional level using PUMS, HUD fair market rents
were applied by PUMA to understand household incomes with respect to percentage of AMI levels.
There are 10 PUMA geographies in the State of Maine and multiple HUD geographies within some
PUMAs, so the two datasets did not align exactly. Since PUMA geographies cannot be broken down
further, a HUD fair market rent needed to be selected for each individual PUMA. For those PUMAs
which had multiple Fair Market Rent areas in them, the Study Team took HUD AMI limits with the
largest population within a particular PUMA.
Appendix Table 2: PUMA to HUD Geography Crosswalk
PUMA Geography
PUMA Code
HUD Geography
Northeastern Region
Northeast Maine – Aroostook &
Washington Counties PUMA
23 00100
Aroostook County
Penobscot
County PUMA
23 00300
Penobscot County
– Bangor, ME HUD Metro FMR Area
Central Western Region
Androscoggin County PUMA
23 00600
Androscoggin County – Lewiston – Auburn ME, MSA
Northwest Maine – Oxford, Somerset,
Franklin & Piscataquis Counties PUMA
23 00200
Oxford County
Kennebec County PUMA
23 00400
Kennebec County
Coastal Region
Cumberland County (Southeast) –
Portland, South Portland &Westbrook
Cities PUMA
23 01000
Cumberland County
– Portland, ME HUD Metro FMR Area
Coastal Maine Region – Hancock, Knox,
Waldo &Lincoln Counties PUMA
23 00500
Hancock County
Sagadahoc & Cumberland (North)
Counties
– Bath City & Brunswick PUMA
23 00700
Sagadahoc County
– Sagadahoc County, ME HUD Metro FMR Area
South Maine
–
York (west) & Cumberland
(West) Counties PUMA
23 00800
York County
– Portland ME HUD Metro FMR Area
Cumberland (Outside Portland) & York
(East) Counties
– Biddeford & Saco Sities
PUMA
23 00900
Cumberland County
– Cumberland County, ME (Part) HUD Metro FMR
Area
6
Short Term Rental County-Level Findings
Appendix Table 3: Short-Term Rental Inventory as Share of Total Housing Supply by County, 2023
Counties
Total AirDNA Inventory
NOAH-Comparable AirDNA Inventory
Northeastern Region
Aroostook County
1.2%
0.5%
Penobscot County
1.1%
0.4%
Washington County
3.2%
1.5%
Central Western Region
Androscoggin County
0.5%
0.2%
Franklin County
6.2%
1.8%
Kennebec County
1.1%
0.4%
Oxford County
4.8%
1.4%
Piscataquis County
4.1%
1.9%
Somerset County
1.5%
0.8%
Coastal Region
Cumberland County
2.8%
0.9%
Hancock County
9.8%
3.1%
Knox County
5.2%
1.6%
Lincoln County
6.3%
2.5%
Sagadahoc County
2.4%
0.9%
Waldo County
3.7%
1.5%
York County
4.2%
1.1%
Source: AirDNA 2023; American Community Survey 5-Year, 2021.
Note: Total AirDNA Inventory defined as properties with at least one reservation in the past year. NOAH-
Comparable AirDNA Inventory defined as properties with at least one reservation in the past year,
available more than 3 months out of the year, that are an entire single family or multifamily unit, and
excluding luxury rentals and rentals with more than 3 bedrooms.
7
Housing Typology Distribution by AMI – Regional Breakout
Housing typologies by income in the Coastal Region generally mirror that of the state (Appendix Figure 1).
Notably, buildings with 50 or more units support affordability for very low-income households in the
Coastal Region.
Appendix Figure 1: Rental Housing Types Affordable by Income Bracket in the Coastal Region, 2021
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) 2021
Compared to the state as a whole, the Central Western Region has a high share of 10 or more-unit homes
affordable to households over 100% of AMI, and a high share of single-family homes supporting
households between 60 – 100% of AMI (Appendix Figure 2). 2-9 unit buildings are an important source of
homes affordable to renter households making very low incomes in this region.
Appendix Figure 2: Rental Housing Types Affordable by Income Bracket in the Central Western
Region, 2021
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) 2021
In the Northeastern region, 2-9 unit buildings are the most prevalent source of rental homes affordable to
renter households making less than 80% AMI, with a higher share of higher-density rental buildings
affordable to households over 100% of AMI (Appendix Figure 3).
13%
19%
23%
25%
43%
60%
28%
50%
60%
55%
33%
20%
25%
18%
12%
11%
14%
9%
29%
5%
3%
8%
9%
11%
5%
8%
2%
2%
2%
Less than 30% AMI
30-50% AMI
50-60% AMI
60%-80% AMI
80%-100% AMI
100% AMI+
Single-Family Home 2-9 Units 10-49 Units 50+ Units Mobile Home
8%
13%
17%
36%
51%
18%
46%
57%
59%
45%
22%
12%
29%
13%
9%
7%
15%
32%
11%
2%
2%
1%
36%
6%
15%
13%
12%
12%
Less than 30% AMI
30-50% AMI
50-60% AMI
60%-80% AMI
80%-100% AMI
100% AMI+
Single-Family Home 2-9 Units 10-49 Units 50+ Units Mobile Home
8
Appendix Figure 3: Rental Housing Types Affordable by Income Bracket in the Northeastern
Region, 2021
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) 2021
12%
23%
19%
27%
50%
25%
48%
47%
65%
60%
29%
17%
26%
16%
5%
9%
15%
37%
7%
2%
2%
6%
21%
6%
12%
8%
3%
Less than 30% AMI
30-50% AMI
50-60% AMI
60%-80% AMI
80%-100% AMI
100% AMI+
Single-Family Home 2-9 Units 10-49 Units 50+ Units Mobile Home
9
Job Openings Rate Calculation Methodology
The Study Team used an adjusted method to calculate job openings when compared to the Job Openings
and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) values. The JOLTS data is benchmarked primarily from the Quarterly
Census of Employment and Wages program (QCEW). Our analysis is based on the FRED employment
numbers resulting from the Current Population Survey (CPS) survey. To translate these values to the FRED
data source, the JOLTS job opening numbers were allocated to regions based on Lightcast job listings
data, and then applied to FRED Employment numbers – reflecting a ratio of listings to employment rather
than the traditional JOLTS measure of jobs. This adjustment shifts the opening rate slightly from the
corresponding JOLTS reported rate.
10
Home Affordability Calculation by Household Income
Home affordability calculations for both rental and homeownership incorporated necessary additional
expenses typical of homeowners and renters.
Renter Affordability Calculation
For renter affordability ranges correlating to the predetermined income ranges, a cost burden ratio of
28% was used based on Maine Housing’s standard assumptions. Rental Utility allowance was selected
from HUD regional tables and included in the affordability calculation by netting it out of the households
monthly payment. The utility allowance for rental units was assumed to be an average value of Maine’s
region tables (Tables for Regions 4, 5, 6 and 7, Region 1, and Region 2 and 3) and assumed to be a 2-
bedroom garden unit. This utility allowance was assumed at $381 per month, and includes electric
heating, cooking, lighting, and water heating, water, sewer, and trash collection.
The resulting affordable rent shown in Appendix Table 4 is what the corresponding household income
could afford.
Appendix Table 4: Regional Household Income Range with Corresponding Rental Affordability
Income Range Affordable Monthly Rent
4
Less than 20K < 80
20K - 35K 81 – 430
35K - 50K 431 – 780
50K - 75K 781 – 1,360
75K- 100K 1,361 – 1,950
100K - 150K 1,951 – 3,110
150K+ 3,111 +
Homeowner Affordability Calculation
For homeowner affordability ranges correlating to the predetermined income ranges, a cost burden ratio
of 28% was used based on Maine Housing’s standard assumptions. Additional cost assumptions
incorporated are as follows:
• Utilities – $500 per month, Assumed for a 3 bedroom single family home averaging across all
region tables and including electric heating, cooking, lighting, and water heating, water, sewer,
and trash collection.
• Insurance - $80 per month
• Property Taxes – Assumed to be an average rate of 1.39%, based on an assessed value of 75%
4
Apartment unit monthly rents were calculated assuming 28% of income towards housing expenses less utility
allowance. Utility allowance was calculated using HUD schedules assuming a 2 bedroom garden apartment unit.
11
Home mortgage costs were estimated using the corresponding household income and current market
conditions, including an 80% loan to value, 7.5% interest rate, 4% closing costs with a 30-year
amortization.
Appendix Table 5: Regional Household Income Range with Corresponding Affordable Home
Purchase Price
Income Range Affordable Home Price
Less than 20K N/A
20K - 35K < 36,500
35K - 50K 36,501 – 90,700
50K - 75K 90,701 – 180,900
75K- 100K 180,901 – 271,200
100K - 150K 271,201 – 451,700
150K+ 451,701 +
12
Methodology for Job : Homes Deficit Household Income Allocation
The Jobs : Homes deficit income allocation was calculated using a methodology that includes both PUMS
data and Lightcast job opening distribution data.
Data was collected on the distribution of personal and corresponding household incomes for those living
in the Northeastern Region. To ensure the analysis incorporated a sufficient sample size of households
and their incomes, a larger geography was used rather than specific regional geographies. Because of this
data limitation, this regional distribution was then applied to all regions job listings instead of having
regional specific distributions. States included in this Northeastern Region geography for the purposes of
this calculation include New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine. The resulting matrix shows the estimated
distribution of household income for individual earners within a specific personal income range
(Appendix Table 6).
Appendix Table 6: Regional Household Income Distribution by Personal Income
Household
Income
Less Than
20K
20K-35K
35K-50K
50K-75K
75K-100K
100K-
150K
150K+
Less Than 20K
12%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
20K-35K
12%
28%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
35K-50K
12%
14%
25%
1%
0%
0%
0%
50K-75K 18% 23% 22% 27% 1% 0% 0%
75K-100K
14%
14%
24%
23%
25%
1%
0%
100K-150K
18%
12%
20%
33%
41%
41%
1%
150K+ 15% 8% 9% 16% 33% 57% 99%
The Study Team derived a distribution of individual wages from Lightcast job listing data. The Study Team
used Unique Postings from June 2022 to May 2023 individually for each region, summing based on
average incomes of occupation codes (SOC). The resulting summary provided individual wage
distributions of job listings over the selected one-year period by region (Appendix Table 7).
Appendix Table 7: Individual Job Listing Income Distributions by Region
Personal Listing
Income
Less Than
20K
20K-35K 35K-50K 50K-75K 75K-100K
100K-
150K
150K+
Coastal
4.6%
17.8%
28.4%
19.5%
19.4%
9.3%
1.1%
Central Western
5.1%
13.5%
20.4%
29.6%
24.4%
5.9%
1.1%
Northeastern
3.7%
28.4%
23.2%
29.1%
8.3%
4.3%
2.9%
The resulting individual wage distributions were then applied to the overall household income
distribution, resulting in an estimate of a regional household income distribution which one could
expect out of state relocations for open job opportunities to fall within (Appendix Table 8).
13
Appendix Table 8: Estimated Household Income Distribution for Job Listings by Region
Household Income Coastal Central Western Northeastern
Less than 20K 0.6% 0.7% 0.6%
20K - 35K 5.5% 4.4% 8.4%
35K - 50K 10.4% 7.9% 10.6%
50K - 75K 16.7% 16.8% 20.4%
75K- 100K 19.3% 20.3% 18.9%
100K - 150K 26.9% 28.9% 23.6%
150K+ 20.6% 21.0% 17.6%
The Study Team then applied the estimated Jobs : Homes deficit to the resulting household
distribution expected for out of state relocations to Maine for new job opportunities in Appendix
Table 8, totaling 11,400 units for the Coastal Region, 7,500 for the Central Western Region, and 1,900
for the Northeastern Region. The resulting distribution of the Jobs : Homes deficit provides an
estimate on which to base home prices such that out of state relocating households could afford to
purchase them (Appendix Table 9).
Appendix Table 9: Allocation of Jobs : Homes Deficit to Estimated Household Incomes Based on
Wages of Open Job Listings
Household Income Coastal Central Western Northeastern
Less than 20K 70 50 10
20K - 35K 630 330 160
35K - 50K 1,180 600 200
50K - 75K 1,900 1,300 390
75K- 100K 2,200 1,500 360
100K - 150K 3,100 2,200 450
150K+ 2,350 1,600 340
Total 11,400 7,500 1,900
