2018
AP Research
Academic Paper
Sample Student Responses
and Scoring Commentary
Inside:
Sample E
R Scoring Guideline
R Student Samples
R Scoring Commentary
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2018 AP Research Academic Paper Rubric v1.0
The response…
Score of 1
Score of 2
Score of 3 Score of 4 Score of 5
Report on Existing Knowledge
Report on Existing Knowledge with
Simplistic Use of a Research Method
Ineffectual Argument for a
New Understanding
Well-Supported, Articulate Argument
Conveying a New Understanding
Rich Analysis of a New Understanding
Addressing a Gap in the Research Base
•
•
•
•
•
•
Presents an overly broad topic
of inquiry.
•
•
•
•
•
•
Presents a topic of inquiry with
narrowing scope or focus, that is
NOT carried through either in the
method or in the overall line of
reasoning.
•
•
•
•
•
•
Carries the focus or scope of a
topic of inquiry through the
method AND overall line of
reasoning, even though the
focus
or scope might still be narrowing.
•
•
•
•
•
•
Focuses a topic of inquiry with
clear and narrow parameters,
which are
addressed through the
method and the
conclusion.
•
•
•
•
•
•
Focuses a topic of inquiry with
clear and narrow parameters,
which are
addressed through the
method and the
conclusion.
Situates a topic of
inquiry
within a single perspective
derived from scholarly works
OR through a variety of
perspectives derived from
mostly non-scholarly works.
Situates
a
topic
of
inquiry
within a
single perspective
derived from
scholarly works
OR
through a
variety of
perspectives derived from
mostly non-scholarly works.
Situates
a
topic
of
inquiry within
relevant scholarly works of
varying perspectives, although
connections to some works may
be unclear.
Explicitly connects a topic of
inquiry to relevant scholarly works
of varying perspectives AND
logically explains how the topic of
inquiry addresses a gap.
Explicitly connects a topic of
inquiry to relevant scholarly works
of varying perspectives AND
logically explains how the topic of
inquiry addresses a gap.
Describes a search and report
process.
Describes a nonreplicable research
method
OR provides an
oversimplified description of a
method, with questionable
alignment to
the purpose of
the
inquiry.
Describes a
reasonably
replicable
research
method, with
questionable
alignment to the
purpose of
the inquiry.
Logically defends
the
alignment
of
a detailed,
replicable research
method to
the purpose of the
inquiry.
Logically defends the
alignment
of
a detailed,
replicable research
method to
the purpose of the
inquiry.
Summarizes or reports
e
xisting
knowledge in
the
field of
understanding pertaining to
the topic of
inquiry.
Summarizes
or
reports existing
knowledge in the field of
understanding pertaining to the
topic of inquiry.
Conveys a new understanding or
con
clusion, with an
underdeveloped line of
reasoning
OR
insufficient
evidence.
Supports a new understanding
or
conclusion through a
logically
organized line of
reasoning
AND
sufficient evidence. The
limitations and/or
implications, if
present,
of the new
understanding
or
conclusion
are
oversimplified.
Justifies a new understanding
or
con
clusion through a
logical
progression of inquiry choices,
sufficient evidence,
explanation
of
the
limitations
of the conclusion,
and an explanation of the
implications
to the community of
practice.
Generally communicates the
student’s ideas, although
errors
in grammar, discipline-
specific style, and organization
distract or confuse the reader.
Generally communicates the
student’s ideas,
although errors in
grammar, discipline-specific style,
and organization distract or confuse
the reader.
Competently communicates the
student’s
ideas, although there
may be some errors in grammar,
discipline-specific style, and
organization.
Competently communicates the
student’s
ideas, although there
may be some errors in grammar,
discipline-specific style, and
organization.
Enhances
the
communication
of
the
student’s ideas
through
organization,
use
of
design
elements,
conventions
of
grammar,
style,
mechanics,
and
word
precision,
with few to no errors.
Cites
A
ND/OR
attributes
sources (in
bibliography/works
cited and/or
in-text), with
multiple errors and/or
an
inconsistent use
of
a
discipline-specific style.
Cites
AND/OR
attributes
sources
(in
bibliography/works cited and/or
in-
text), with
multiple errors and/or an
inconsistent use
of a
discipline-
specific style.
Cites
AND
attribute
s sources,
using a
discipline-specific style
(in both bibliography/works cited
AND in-text), with
few
errors
or
inconsistencies.
Cites
AND
attributes sources,
with a
consistent use of
an
appropriate discipline-specific
style (in both
bibliography/works cited AND in-
text), with few to no errors.
Cites
AND
attributes sources,
with
a
consistent use of an appropriate
discipline-specific style (in both
bibliography/works cited AND in-
text),
with few to no errors.
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AP
®
RESEARCH
20
18 SCORING COMMENTARY
Academic Paper
Overview
This performance task was intended to assess students’ ability to conduct scholarly and responsible research
and
articulate an evidence-based argument that clearly communicates the conclusion, solution, or answer to their
stated research question. More specifically, this performance task was intended to assess students’ ability to:
• Generate a focused research question that is situated within or connected to a larger scholarly context or
com
munity;
• Explore relationships between and among multiple works representing multiple perspectives within the
sc
holarly literature related to the topic of inquiry;
• Articulate what approach, method, or process they have chosen to use to address their research question,
why t
hey have chosen that approach to answering their question, and how they employed it;
• Develop and present their own argument, conclusion, or new understanding while acknowledging its
li
mitations and discussing implications;
• Support their conclusion through the compilation, use, and synthesis of relevant and significant evidence
gener
ated by their research;
• Use organizational and design elements to effectively convey the paper’s message;
• Consistently and accurately cite, attribute, and integrate the knowledge and work of others, while
di
stinguishing between the student’s voice and that of others;
• Generate a paper in which word choice and syntax enhance communication by adhering to established
conventions of grammar, usage, and mechanics.
Sample E 1 of 29
AP Capstone Research
The Second Sun: Determining and Simulating the most effective Solar Energy System for the
United Arab Emirates’ Next Solar Plant
AP Capstone Research 2018
Word Count: 4254
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Sample E 2 of 29
AP Capstone Research
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS 1
INTRODUCTION 2
LITERATURE REVIEW 3
Research Question 3
United Arab Emirates’s Energy Summary 3
The Shams 1 Initiative 4
Understanding Solar Power Systems 4
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 8
Fuzzy Standard Adjustments: 10
DATA COLLECTION 12
RESULTS 14
Comparing Systems 14
Operational System Analysis 15
DISCUSSION 17
Choosing the System 17
Meeting the UAE’s Goals 18
Limitations 19
CONCLUSION 21
References 22
Appendix 25
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Sample E 3 of 29
AP Capstone Research
INTRODUCTION
Fossil fuels such as oil and coal have been dominating the energy generating landscape since the
industrial revolution. These non-renewable energy sources not only come in finite quantities, but also
damage the natural environment through the release of chemicals that disrupt natural environmental
processes. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have caused environmental damage and pollution,
which has prompted the global society to move towards more sustainable energy sources, with solar
energy being amongst the most popular.
The research done in this study aims to help design the next most effective solar energy plant that
can be the solution to many of the problems that non-renewable energy creates in the United Arab
Emirates (UAE). Due to its almost year-round susceptibility to the sun’s rays, the UAE is the ideal
environment for solar energy plants.
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Sample E 4 of 29
AP Capstone Research
LITERATURE REVIEW
Research Question
Shams 2: Through Which Solar Power System Could the UAE Create the Most Effective Solar Farm?
United Arab Emirates’s Energy Summary
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a nation that discovered natural resources of oil and gas over
half a century ago. This development allowed for rapid industrial growth that resulted in the UAE
becoming a leading nation in the hydrocarbon energy industry. (1) As the fifth largest producer of oil in
the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the UAE has been relying solely on
fossil fuel based energy production since the beginning of its energy endeavors. According to their
released 2016 reports, the UAE government has seen a dramatic rise in the energy production. From 77.9
TeraWatt hours (TWh) consumed in 2008 to 105.4 TWh in 2013, (2) the UAE has shown an increase in
energy consumption of 35.3%.
In the same report, Mr. Bilal Hassan, a lead engineer for the UAE Ministry of Energy, described
how the United Arab Emirates is looking to replace much of that energy generation from fossil based
fuels to renewable energy. He stated that “in order to meet energy demand while balancing environmental
considerations, renewable energy must play an important role, solar energy being one of the most
promising sources”, (3) showing that the UAE is focused on creating a more sustainable future primarily
through solar energy. It is evident that with their Shams 1 solar plant that they are on their way to a
cleaner future through renewable energy. As stated in the introduction, the immediate goal for the UAE is
to have 30% of its electricity be generated from local solar energy initiatives, and a plan for a second solar
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Sample E 5 of 29
AP Capstone Research
energy system has already been developed, for which 14.2 billion dirhams ($3.866 billion as of March
2018). (3)
The Shams 1 Initiative
The Shams 1 initiative is a Concentrated Solar Plant (CSP) located in the capital city of Abu
Dhabi at the coordinates of 23
o
34’ and on the longitude of 53
o
42’. (4) It spans 2.5 km
2
, and was
inaugurated in 2013. It has the installed capacity of 100 MegaWatts (MW) which, according to Masdar
(the parent company of Shams) powers 20,000 homes in Abu Dhabi (the UAE’s capital city). (4) The full
project cost $600 million (the largest financing for a Concentrated Solar Plant yet), (4) and from Abu
Dhabi Distribution Co. (the electricity authority of Abu Dhabi), the charge per home for 1 kiloWatt hour
(kWh) of energy costs 26.8 fils (assuming one is an expatriate consuming energy under the recommended
daily usage) per kWh. This means that 20,000 will provide the UAE with 5,360 dhs in one hour, and
128,640 dhs per day. From this, it can be calculated that the amount of time it would take to earn back all
of the cost for the plant, which is roughly 4,666 days, or 12 years and 9 months. This, however, is just a
baseline calculation considering there are other variables (such as the UAE’s local Emiratis only having
to pay 6.7 fils for energy, and there being an overuse charge charge which is 7.5 fils for Emiratis and 30.5
fils for expatriates), but it is a good estimation considering there are only 551,535 nationals, compared to
the 2,356,638 non-nationals, and the lack of exact data to determine how much energy each of those
20,000 house holds utilize. (5)
Understanding Solar Power Systems
Solar power systems (SPSs) are the amalgamation of hardware and processes that convert energy
released by the sun in the form of heat and light to electrical energy that can be directed into the grid. The
authors of the scholarly journal Toward clean environment: evaluation of solar electric power
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Sample E 6 of 29
AP Capstone Research
technologies using fuzzy logic separate the types of solar power systems using a flow chart that
categorizes every single type of solar power system (Figure 1).
*CLFR = Compact Linear Fresnel Reflector
Figure 1: Flow Chart showing the breakdown of the different solar power systems
(6)
SPSs are separated into two types of conversion. Direct electricity conversion is the system that
allows for heat to be absorbed by a panel and then converted to energy. (6, 7) Conversely, Indirect
electricity conversion is the system that contains a reflective surface - a heliostat - which directs energy to
an absorbing surface (which varies based on the system). (8)
The sub-branches of indirect electricity
systems highlight the method of which electricity is
transferred from one surface to another. Concentrating power systems utilize heliostats that reflect power
in a manner that focuses energy into a central area. For example, parabolic troughs utilize the properties
of a parabola in that the heliostat is curved around a central point (the focus) so that all light that falls onto
it is reflected into a pipe located at the focus (Figure 2). The single axis tracking system focuses only on
the sun, so the only movement necessary is for the sun to stay in exactly the same position as the Earth
rotates about it. In contrast, dual tracking systems require the system to track the sun and where the sun’s
rays are being reflected too. For example, the solar tower systems (figure 3) requires the sun to reflect
heat from the sun to a heliostat and then to a central location that absorbs the heat. This requires the
heliostat to be angled in relation to both the sun and the central absorbing system which requires
adjustment of the whole system. (6)
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Sample E 7 of 29
AP Capstone Research
Figure 2: Diagram depicting the shape of a Parabolic Trough heliostat and absorbing pipe reflecting and absorbing sunlight (9)
Figure 3: Solar power tower reflecting light from the sun to a central receiver using a dual tracking system (10)
Non-concentrating systems, on the other hand, do not focus the energy but absorb it by means of
a fluid with a large surface area and transfer the heat to a collector or generator. (10, 11) Solar chimneys,
for example, utilize a vast surface area to trap hot air inside of a chimney shaped dome (figure 4) which
then pushes a vertical turbine at the base of the chimney to convert solar energy to kinetic energy. (6) The
large area of air under the transparent dome acts as the carrier, making it an indirect, non-concentrating
system.
Figure 4: Solar chimney absorbing light (yellow arrows) through transparent
glass and turning turbines. The air is then filtered out through the chimney to
make way for cooler air that is ready to absorb heat. (6)
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Sample E 8 of 29
AP Capstone Research
By using this system of organization for each of the different SPS, The researcher can determine
what would be the best system for the UAE to use for its next solar farm. By sorting these systems into
the various categories, the researcher will be able to better analyse the system they determine to be the
ideal one for the United Arab Emirates.
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Sample E 9 of 29
AP Capstone Research
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The purpose of this study was to determine the best system for the United Arab Emirates through
a detailed analysis of the ideal Solar Power System and through an evaluation of the main components of
the aforementioned system. The researcher utilized a grounded theory research methodology to evaluate a
multitude of sources to simulate an ideal SPS (Appendix) in the United arab Emirates.
The first stage of research was based on discovering the ideal SPS from a scholarly journal that
evaluated all of the different types of SPSs through the use of ‘fuzzy logic’. (6) Fuzzy logic is a concept
that allows for a quantitative observation of both qualitative and quantitative raw data. The data is
processed into a decimal system that ranges from 0 to 1 and the ranges can go from one decimal place
(least accurate) to 3 decimal places (most accurate) in this journal. (6, 12) The journal splits the evaluation
into costs and benefits, so a higher score for benefits is ideal (a score of 1 for power means the system is
very efficient) and a lower score for costs is ideal (a score of 0.10 out of 0.5 for water usage is also
considered efficient). Furthermore, fuzzy logic uses parameter importance to determine how important
each component is based on the overall relevance to the system. For example, temperature may not be as
important as the amount of power generated. The researcher will be re-evaluating the parameter
importance to allow for specification to the United Arab Emirates. It evaluates 14 benefits and 8 costs,
including and defined as:
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Sample E 10 of 29
AP Capstone Research
Table 1: Benefits
Term
Definition
Original
Parameter
Importance
Revised
Parameter
Importance
Power
Plant’s Installed capacity or size (MW)
1
No Change
(NC)
Annual
Efficiency
Annual solar to electrical energy conversion
efficiency
0.71
0.8
Thermal
Efficiency
Efficiency of heat absorbance and transfer
0.71
NC
Peak
Efficiency
Maximum solar to electrical energy conversion
efficiency
0.5
NC
Availability
Availability of resources
1.0
NC
Annual CF
Annual Capacity Factor
0.5
NC
Storage h
Number of hours heat is storable after absorbance
0.5
NC
Maturity
Popularity or development of system
1.0
0.8
T
Temperature
0.71
NC
Safety
General Safety of farm
0.43
NC
Concentrati
on Ratio
(CR)
Area of reflector panel in relation to area of receiver
0.71
NC
Relative
Weight
The average score of the system on a scale of 0 - 1
N/A
*
N/A
Normalized
Relative
Weight
The weight of the system in relation to all other
systems divided by the largest weight possible (to
create a scale from 0 to 1)
N/A
N/A
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Sample E 11 of 29
AP Capstone Research
Table 1: Costs
Term
Definition
Original
Parameter
Importance
Revised
Parameter
Importance
Hardware
Cost
Cost of all the physical items used to create the
solar farm
0.5
0.8
Electricity
Cost
Cost of all the energy used to power the system
(rotating panels, computer systems ect.)
0.5
NC
Water Usage
Cost of all the water being transferred through
piping (assuming all heat transfer fluids are water
(to create consistency)
0.5
NC
Land Usage
Cost of renting the land
0.4
0.1
Maintenance
Cost
Cost of replacing old/malfunctioning parts
0.5
NC
Environment
Damage done to the environment
0.25
0.1
Relative
Weight
The average score of the system on a scale of 0 -
1
N/A
N/A
Normalized
Relative
Weight
The weight of the system in relation to all other
systems divided by the largest weight possible (to
create a scale from 0 to 1)
N/A
N/A
All data collected from Source 6
* These values were considered not applicable because of their objective nature in that they are just comparisons of
mass of the structure which has nothing to do with the quality of the farm, but they are good comparison standards
Fuzzy Standard Adjustments:
The following are reasons for why the researcher had altered the specific data values from the original
fuzzy logic data set:
1. Annual Efficiency: Part of the conclusions of this study was to estimate the payback time of the
solar farm so that the researcher could analyse whether or not the solar farm would be efficient in
the long run for the UAE government. As annual efficiency is an essential part of that calculation,
the researcher felt that it needed an increased value of importance.
2. Maturity: The researcher felt that the maturity of the system did not need to be valued as high as
other standards of system evaluation due to the fact that the data collected on installed capacity
and efficiency would matter more than how far the technology has developed since it had first
been designed. In some cases, some technologies may have developed faster or later than others,
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Sample E 12 of 29
AP Capstone Research
but objectively they could still be more powerful (as will be analyzed through our data of the
fuzzy sources.
3. Hardware Cost: The United Arab Emirates may be a leading solar energy developer, but its
resources are mostly imported from other regions. This led the researcher to consider that the cost
of components may need to be increased to account for the increase of component pricing due to
shipping and transport costs.
4.
Land Usage: Considering that the UAE is a monarchical society, all land is owned by the
presiding Sheikh of Abu Dhabi at the time, and considering the project will be government
funded, the land would either be gifted or rented at a much cheaper price. Thus, it was necessary
to greatly depreciate the parameter importance of the cost of land since this would not be a private
venture. (13)
Once the researcher had completed his reevaluation of the fuzzy parameter importances, he began
to compare all of the data to determine the overall costs in relation to the overall benefits of each system.
He first multiplied each value for each parameter by the parameter importance to gain an accurate value
for each data point. For example, if the value for some standard was 0.71, but its parameter importance
was 0.5, then its Real Data Value (RDV) , the value of the specific score in relation to every single score
of every standard, would be 0.355. This is essential because the next step was to sum all of the data points
for cost and all of the data for benefits (independent from each other) to find the total benefits and cost for
each SPS. This would then allow the researcher to quantitatively identify the system with the highest
benefits and the lowest cost. This, however, could mean that one system has the highest benefits, but does
not have the lowest cost, so the benefit will then divide the benefits by the cost to see which system has
the most ideal ratio of benefits to cost and will then select the top choice of SPS.
After completing the evaluation of these systems through fuzzy logic, the researcher began the
second phase of data collection which was to utilize scholarly journals and information on existing and
similar solar energy systems (between the top two systems). These documents allow the researcher to find
more variables in order to compare the top systems with and give a more in depth understanding of the
systems and their differences. Furthermore, the real life comparison of the separate systems will allow the
researcher to determine more of the architectural and economic variables of the plant that may affect the
quality of the system including the cost and the size of the whole system.
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Sample E 13 of 29
AP Capstone Research
DATA COLLECTION
Figure 4
Figure 4 is the graphical representation of all of the average values of the Normalized Relative Weight
once the researcher had modified the parameter importances and recalculated all values to factor in the
new parameter importances. Once those were calculated, the values for each system were averaged to
obtain the Relative Weight (RW) for benefit and then divided by the highest Relative Weight of all the
systems to generate the Normalized RW (NRW) of them on a scale of 0.000 - 1.000 (See Appendix A).
The same was done for the cost analysis (See Appendix B) (Figure 5).
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Sample E 14 of 29
AP Capstone Research
Figure 5
Finally, all the costs and benefits were compared by dividing the benefit by the cost to find the ratio
(figure 6) (See Appendix C). If any of these
B/C values
were below 1, that meant that the costs outweigh
the benefits so they were immediately disregarded.
Figure 6
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Sample E 15 of 29
AP Capstone Research
RESULTS
Comparing Systems
The Compact Linear Fresnel Reflector (CLFR) solar system is a single axis, concentrating system
that converts energy indirectly. This means it contains both reflector and absorbing units, but only needs
to track one object (the sun) and position its reflectors in relation to the object. The parabolic trough is
also a single axis, indirect conversion, concentrating solar system and therefore operates in much the same
way. The differences between them lay in their design, as the parabolic trough utilizez curved reflectors
that reflect light into a single focusing tube. This absorbing tube lays above the reflectors and contains the
heat transfer fluid (HTF) that act as the transportation system for the solar energy which is converted
through a generator.
The CLFR solar system is similar in that it concentrates heat energy from curved (or straight)
reflectors onto absorbing pipes, but these pipes are positioned much higher up and usually allow for
multiple rows of heliostats to reflect into a singular (or usually 2) transfer pipes. Figure 7 and 8 show a
Parabolic Trough (PT) system and a CLFR system respectively.
Figure 7: Source 14
Figure 8: Source 14
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Sample E 16 of 29
AP Capstone Research
According to the scholarly journal authored by Nishith B. Desai - an Energy Systems Engineer
from the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, and colleagues - and Professor Bandyopadhyay - of the
same institute - which evaluated both systems, it was noted that the major difference and disadvantage
that the Linear Fresnel reflectors have is their limited optical efficiency (the amount of energy that can be
reflected to the absorbing panels) and steam efficiency. (14) One advantage that PT systems have (as a
product of 20 years of further development over the Fresnel Reflector systems) is that they can utilize
multiple heat transfer methods (known as cycles) to achieve heat transfer, whereas CLFR systems are
limited to only steam based cycles, which severely limits their installed capacity because of the actual
boiling point of water being lower than those of molten salt or oil. (14) Furthermore, Desai highlights that
in their most latest forms, PT technology is at least two - four percent more efficient than CLFR, and even
though both have a relatively low capital cost, the risk for implementing the latter is much lower when
considering the rapid improvement of technology being made with Fresnel Reflectors in comparison to
PT collectors. (14)
Operational System Analysis
Currently, the CLFR plant with the largest capacity is the Rajasthan Sun Technique Energy Pvt.
Ltd Power Plant in Rajasthan, India. It has an alleged installed capacity of 125 MegaWatts (MW),
according to the Reliance Power Co. (the owners of the plant), and covers an area of 340 hectares (ha). It
has an expected power generation of 280,000 MegaWatt hours per year (MWh/yr), and cost
approximately $351 million as of 2014 (converted from Rupees). (15)
In comparison, the Solnova power plant is a parabolic trough based system that is comprised of 3
separate units (Solnova 1, 3, and 4). Independently, each of the 3 units cover 115 ha, they generates an
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Sample E 17 of 29
AP Capstone Research
estimated 113,520 MWh/yr, have an installed capacity of 150 MW, and all together cost approximately
$527,743,000 as of 2007 (the first year of operation). (16, 17, 18, 19)
From
the
data
above,
it
can
be
seen
that
the
CFLR
plant
generates
less
energy
at
almost
the
same
area
(340
ha
<
three
115
or
345
ha).
The
PT
plants
generate
a
combined
341,000
MWh/yr
of
energy
which
is
almost
80,000
MHh/yr
greater
than
the
CFLR,
and
even
though
the
PT
system
was
built
7
years
earlier
than
the
system
in
Rajasthan
it
still
generates
more
energy,
but
at
a
higher
accounting
cost
(by
almost $175 million.
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Sample E 18 of 29
AP Capstone Research
DISCUSSION
Choosing the System
From all of the data presented, the researcher has evaluated that the best Solar Power System for
the United Arab Emirates to implement is the Parabolic Trough solar system.
From the fuzzy logic data set, the researcher performed an in-depth analysis of all of the different
aspects of each solar system, and came to the conclusion that the top two systems of that evaluation were
the Concentrated Linear Fresnel Reflecting system and the Parabolic Trough system. These two were both
connected by exactly the same branches on the flowchart diagram (figure 1) which meant that they were
both single-axis tracking, concentrating, indirectly converting solar energy systems. This also meant that
the designs that fit these categories are the most effective in solar energy generation.
In the first section of our results section the researcher compared the two systems and described
them in more detail than the flow chart could provide. By evaluating the limitations of both systems the
researcher learned that the CLFR system could only utilize steam based heat energy transfer and that due
to the PT system’s popularity and existence for a longer period of time, they have been developed further,
making PT systems the best candidate for the UAE’s new solar system.
Finally, to compare both the systems in a non-simulated situation - to give a third and final
perspective on which system would be the most effective - the researcher evaluated two systems of
similar size (in hectares) and installed capacity (in MW). The researcher further learned that the PT
systems generated more electricity yearly, but were considerably more expensive. However, this cost may
be due to the gap in development, as the PT system was seven years older than the CLFR system. The PT
system was chosen by the researcher as the most effective because it was the highest scoring system for
fuzzy logic benefits, its limitations were fewer than the CFLR system, and it was more well developed.
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AP Capstone Research
Meeting the UAE’s Goals
Currently, the largest solar farm that utilizes PT technology is the Solar Energy Generating
Systems (SEGS) in the Mojave Desert, California. It is a collection of 9 units that each have the installed
capacity of 80 MW, and each has the ability to generate
2,725 kWh/m
2
/yr or 1.265 tWh/yr per plant. (20)
From the UAE’s released electricity consumption history, it can be said that as of 2013 the UAE
consumes at least 105.4 tWh of energy. 30% of this figure would be 31.62 tWh, which would need 25
independent solar energy generating units to supplement. Considering that the 80 MW unit utilizes
483,960 m
2
of area, the UAE would theoretically need 12,099,000 m
2
to construct this farm, (20) which is
equivalent to 0.014% of the total area of the United Arab Emirates (the total area being 83.6 billion m
2
).
(21) From a UN Food and Agriculture Organization, the total uninhabited area of the uae is equivalent to
5.9 billion m
2
, (21) which is approximately 7.05% of the total area of of the UAE.
In terms of land usage this is feasible, but the cost of the system is a heavy determinant of the
feasibility. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) released a cost analysis on the different
types of solar systems as of 2010, which stated that a parabolic trough system with a "storage capacity of
7.5 hours estimated to cost […] USD 7 280/kW”. If our system had an installed capacity of 80 MW or
80,000 kW, the cost of one system would be $582.4 million, which would allow us to create 24 plants.
This would also mean that the revenue collected by the operational units (depending on the cost of
electricity) could be fed back into the production of the last unit, making the creation of 25 units feasible.
From the current owners of the SEGS, Nextera Energy, the researcher found that the production
for each unit began a year after the previous and was completed after four years of construction. Allowing
for two years of planning from now, if the plants commissioned building, it would have ten years to finish
all of the units, or 6 to begin the construction of all of them. If five units were constructed for the first
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Sample E 20 of 29
AP Capstone Research
three, four for the next two, and two in the last year, the UAE would be able to meet their goal of 30%
renewable energy in 2030.
Limitations
The two biggest limitations to this paper as a whole was the accumulation of too many variables
that could not be assessed in any of the 3 standards of comparison, and the limited access to information
and knowledge that would make the paper more accurate. It is first evident through the parameters of
importance in the fuzzy logic phaze of data collection that there was a limited access to data. The
researcher was unable to fully modify all the specific parameters that were set in the original data set to fit
the UAE’s specifications because justification for each parameter was not provided so the researcher
chose to carefully change only a few and instead manipulate given data to re-evaluate the Solar Power
Systems.
Considering the fuzzy logic standards, the real life systems, and the design of each system, the
researcher was unable to accurately give consistent measures for each systems positive and negative
attributes due to the sheer number of variables present in the study. The researcher had to eliminate
several systems early on to create a ‘funneling’ process that brought seven systems down to two and then
finally the best one. This made it easier for the researcher to determine a system for the UAE, but did not
give the other systems a chance to be qualitatively examines, thus the researcher would suggest any
further research to go in the direction of qualitative research and evaluation for all of the various SPS.
Finally, the project of a 25 unit Parabolic Trough Solar Power System could exist given the
current conditions and calculated values for the land usage, plant cost, and build time. These values were
either calculated or obtained from what limited public information the researcher had access to, but the
calculations themselves are accurate. The researcher would suggest that if this research were to be taken
further, it be in the direction of a more accurate analysis of each standard, with less weight on fuzzy
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Sample E 21 of 29
AP Capstone Research
standards (due to their consideration of too many variables) and more emphasis on the direct comparison
of both the quantitative and qualitative data on each of the various solar powered systems.
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AP Capstone Research
CONCLUSION
The purpose of this research paper was to identify and simulate the implementation of a Solar
Power System that could provide the UAE with the most energy while still taking into consideration other
factors that may affect the quality of the system. By assessing SPS’s benefiting factors such as the Annual
CF and Maturity, while also weighing them against cost factors such as Environmental impacts and
Electrical cost the researcher was able to compare seven different systems across 20 or so standards to
calculate the more effective system (or systems) through a fuzzy logic data set. This helped us eliminate
several of the candidates for UAE’s ideal SPS, but to choose the most ideal one required more qualitative
analysis. By evaluating the design aspects of the top two contenders and the real system comparison of
the two helped the researcher select the final candidate for the system: the solar trough.
The researcher then discussed the
potential of solar trough farms in the UAE by estimating the
amount of trough units, the time of construction, and the cost of construction to estimate whether the
goals of the UAE could be met with current technology. With the limitations of a lack of available
information and an accumulation of variables, the researcher was able to provide a rough method for the
implementation of 25 units that would cost more than $500 million each and take 10 years to be fully
operational. With the UAE’s ambitious goals of being a leader in renewable energy, leaps in energy
technology and funding into solar plants of such scale and magnitude are necessary for realizing the
efforts to push to more renewable energy focused initiatives that can both utilize natural resources and
eliminate the global necessity for natural gases, oil, and coal. Thus, making the UAE a pioneer in energy
collection and renewable energy generation.
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AP Capstone Research
References
1.
UAE State of Energy Reports 2017. Abu Dhabi (UAE): United Arab Emirates Ministry of
Energy; 2017. 49 p.
2.
UAE State of Energy Reports 2017. Abu Dhabi (UAE): United Arab Emirates Ministry of
Energy; 2016. 30 p.
3.
Dubai launches world’s largest Concentrated Solar Power project. Abu Dhabi (UAE): Gulf News.
2017 Sept 16; 1 (Par. 1-4).
4.
Location. Shams Power Company. Abu Dhabi (UAE): [Internet] [accessed 2018 Feb 2].
http://www.shamspower.ae/en/the-project/location
/.
5.
Abu Dhabi Emirate: Facts and Figures. Abu Dhabi (UAE): Abu Dhabi Digital Government;
[accessed 2018 Mar 29].
https://www.abudhabi.ae/portal/public/en/abu-dhabi-emirate/abu-dhabi-emirate-facts-and-figures
.
6.
Badran O, Mamlook R, Abdulhadi E. Toward clean environment: Evaluation of solar electric
power technologies using fuzzy logic. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy 2012
04;14(2):357-67
.
7.
Knier G. How do Photovoltaics Work?. Science@NASA: NASA; 2008 Aug 6 [accessed 2018
Mar 29].
https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2002/solarcells
.
8.
Bordry F. Power converters: definitions, classification and converter topologies. Geneva (CH).
CERN; 24 - 30 p
.
9.
Parabolic Trough Reflector. Alternative Energy Tutorials: Home of alternative and renewable
energy tutorials; 2010 [accessed Feb 13 2018].
http://www.alternative-energy-tutorials.com/solar-hot-water/parabolic-trough-reflector.html
.
Sample E 23 of 29
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10.
Tan AYK, Wong NH. Influences of ambient air speed and internal heat load on the performance
of solar chimney in the tropics. Solar Energy; 2014 04. 102 - 116 p.
11.
Akbarzadeh A, Johnson P, Singh R. Examining potential benefits of combining a chimney with a
salinity gradient solar pond for production of power in salt affected areas. Solar Energy 2009
08;83(8):1345 1 p
.
12.
Cintula P, Fermüller CG, Noguera C. Fuzzy Logic. Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. 2017
Jul 18 [accessed 2018 Mar 29].
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/logic-fuzzy
/.
13.
Al-Muhairi, Butti Sultan Butti Ali. "The Position of Shari'a within the UAE Constitution and the
Federal Supreme Court's Application of the Constitutional Clause concerning Shari'a". Arab Law
Quarterly; 1996 Jan 1.
11 (3): 219–244 p
.
14.
Desai NB, Bandyopadhyay S. Line-focusing concentrating solar collector-based power plants: A
review. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy
2017 01;19(1): 12-29 p
.
15.
Puerto Errado 2 Thermosolar Power Plant. Concentrating Solar Power Projects - Puerto Errado 2
Thermosolar Power Plant. Concentrating Solar Power. NREL; 2013 Apr 26 [accessed 2018 Mar
29].
https://www.nrel.gov/csp/solarpaces/project_detail.cfm/projectID=159
.
16.
Solnova 1. Concentrating Solar Power Projects: Solnova 1. Concentrating Solar Power. NREL;
2017 Mar 20 [accessed 2018 Mar 29].
https://www.nrel.gov/csp/solarpaces/project_detail.cfm/projectID=21
.
17.
Solnova 3. Concentrating Solar Power Projects - Solnova 3. Concentrating Solar Power. NREL;
2017 Mar 20 [accessed 2018 Mar 29].
https://www.nrel.gov/csp/solarpaces/project_detail.cfm/projectID=22
.
18.
Solnova 4. Concentrating Solar Power Projects: Solnova 4.Concentrating Solar Power. NREL;
2017 Mar 20 [accessed 2018 Mar 29].
https://www.nrel.gov/csp/solarpaces/project_detail.cfm/projectID=25
.
Sample E 24 of 29
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Sample E 25 of 29
AP Capstone Research
19. Solnova Solar Power Station, Sanlúcar la Mayor, Seville. Power-Technology.com; 2018
[accessed 2018 Mar 29].
https://www.power-technology.com/projects/solnova-solar-power-station/.
20. Solar Electric Generating Station VIII. Concentrating Solar Power Projects: Solar Electric
Generating Station VIII. Concentrating Solar Power. NREL; 2015 Oct 1 [accessed 2018 Mar 29].
https://www.nrel.gov/csp/solarpaces/project_detail.cfm/projectID=35
.
21. United Arab Emirates: Geography, Climate, and Population. AQUASTAT Survey: Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; 2016 [accessed 2018 Mar 29]. 1 - 6 p.
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AP Capstone Research
Appendix
Appendix A:
Benefits - Original Data:
Power
Annual
Efficiency
Thermal
Efficiency
Peak
Efficiency
Avaliability
Annual CF
Storage h
Parameter
Importance
1.00
0.71
0.71
0.5
1.00
0.50
0.50
Trough
1.00
0.67
0.70
0.72
1.00
0.69
0.50
Tower
0.25
0.74
0.91
0.69
0.50
1.00
0.67
Chimney
0.50
0.10
0.21
0.10
0.70
1.00
1.00
Dish
0.13
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.60
0.31
0.00
Pond
0.01
0.10
0.24
0.97
0.80
1.00
1.00
PV
0.05
0.70
-
0.97
1.00
0.19
0.42
CLFR
0.44
0.48
0.70
0.69
0.90
0.70
0.50
Maturity
T
Safety
CR
Relative
Weight
Normalized
Relative Weight
Parameter Importance
1.00
0.71
0.43
0.71
-
-
Trough
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.40
0.684
1.000
Tower
0.80
0.67
0.40
0.70
0.651
0.952
Chimney
0.30
0.06
0.45
1.00
0.399
0.583
Dish
0.20
0.10
0.60
0.10
0.564
0.825
Pond
0.20
0.08
1.00
0.10
0.380
0.556
PV
0.60
-
0.3
-
0.522
0.763
CLFR
0.30
0.33
0.70
0.40
0.546
0.798
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AP Capstone Research
Benefits - Recalculated Data Values:
Power
Annual
Efficiency
Thermal
Efficiency
Peak
Efficiency
Avaliability
Annual
CF
Storage h
Parameter
Importance
1.00
0.80
0.71
0.5
1.00
0.50
0.50
Trough
1.00
0.54
0.50
0.36
1.00
0.35
0.25
Tower
0.25
0.59
0.65
0.35
0.50
0.50
0.34
Chimney
0.50
0.08
0.15
0.05
0.70
0.50
0.50
Dish
0.13
0.80
0.71
0.50
0.60
0.16
0.00
Pond
0.01
0.08
0.17
0.49
0.80
0.50
0.50
PV
0.05
0.56
-
0.49
1.00
0.10
0.21
CLFR
0.44
0.38
0.50
0.35
0.90
0.35
0.25
Maturity
T
Safety
CR
Relative Weight
Normalized Relative
Weight
Parameter
Importance
0.80
0.71
0.43
0.71
-
-
Trough
0.80
0.23
0.22
0.28
0.502
1.000
Tower
0.64
0.48
0.17
0.50
0.450
0.897
Chimney
0.24
0.04
0.19
0.71
0.333
0.664
Dish
0.16
0.07
0.26
0.07
0.314
0.626
Pond
0.16
0.06
0.43
0.07
0.297
0.591
PV
0.48
-
0.13
-
0.274
0.545
CLFR
0.24
0.23
0.30
0.28
0.384
0.765
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AP Capstone Research
Appendix B:
Costs - Original Values
Hardware
Cost
Electricity
Cost
Water
Usage
Land
Usage
Maintenance
Cost
Environmental
Constraints
Relative
Weight
Normalized
Relative
Weight
Param
eter
Import
ance
0.500
0.500
0.500
0.400
0.500
0.250
-
-
Trough
0.440
0.180
0.700
0.420
0.300
1.000
0.434
0.754
Tower
0.550
0.210
0.800
0.310
0.520
0.740
0.512
0.889
Chimn
ey
0.530
0.150
0.100
0.900
0.520
0.000
0.402
0.698
Dish
1.000
0.500
0.100
0.300
0.520
0.600
0.487
0.845
Pond
0.290
0.180
1.000
1.000
0.200
0.000
0.432
0.750
PV
0.840
1.000
0.100
0.360
1.000
0.000
0.576
1.000
CLFR
0.350
0.110
0.300
0.200
0.100
0.300
0.247
0.429
Costs - Recalculated Data Values:
Hardware
Cost
Electricity
Cost
Water
Usage
Land
Usage
Maintenance
Cost
Environmental
Constraints
Relative
Weight
Normalized
Relative
Weight
Param
eter
Import
ance
0.800
0.500
0.500
0.100
0.500
0.250
-
-
Trough
0.352
0.090
0.350
0.042
0.150
0.250
0.206
0.702
Tower
0.440
0.105
0.400
0.031
0.260
0.185
0.237
0.808
Chimn
ey
0.424
0.075
0.050
0.090
0.260
0.000
0.150
0.511
Dish
0.800
0.250
0.050
0.030
0.260
0.150
0.257
0.876
Pond
0.232
0.090
0.500
0.100
0.100
0.000
0.170
0.581
PV
0.672
0.500
0.050
0.036
0.500
0.000
0.293
1.000
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CLFR
0.280
0.055
0.150
0.020
0.050
0.075
0.105
0.358
Appendix C:
Benefit/Cost Ratio:
ADJUSTED NRW
BENEFIT
ADJUSTED NRW
COST
B/C
NORMALIZED
B/C
Trough
1.000
0.702
1.424454737
0.667
Tower
0.897
0.808
1.109632534
0.520
Chimney
0.664
0.511
1.297957447
0.608
Dish
0.626
0.876
0.7142492603
0.335
Pond
0.591
0.581
1.016518449
0.476
PV
0.545
1.000
0.544911264
0.255
CLFR
0.765
0.358
2.135204464
1.000
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AP
®
RESEARCH
20
18 SCORING COMMENTARY
Academic Paper
Sample: E
Score: 3
The paper earned a score of 3 because it is an example of basic capital “R” research, which includes a narrowing
re
search topic (page 8, paragraph 1: “ ... what would be the best system for the UAE to use for its next solar
farm"; also page 9, paragraph 1: “The purpose of the study was to determine the best system for the United Arab
Emirates ...”), a solid survey of the literature (pages 4–7), it identifies its method (page 9, paragraph 1, as: “... a
grounded theory research methodology” into which it incorporates: “... the use of ‘fuzzy logic’” [paragraph 2]) and
some sense of a coherent argument supported by original evidence leading to a new understanding provided in
text and a series of tables (pages 10–14). The paper then discusses the results (pages 15–17) and reaches a new
understanding on page 18, paragraph 1: “From all of the data presented, the researcher has evaluated that the
best Solar Power System for the United Arab Emirates to implement is the Parabolic Trough solar system.”
The paper did not earn a 2 because it describes a reasonably replicable method, conveys a new understanding,
and
communicates its ideas competently.
The paper did not earn a 4 because it does not fully explain and defend the use of grounded theory and fuzzy
lo
gic in a way that lends credibility to the student as researcher. Even though the paper implies a gap on page 3,
paragraph 2, and page 8, paragraph 1, it does not provide enough information in its literature review to establish
that this gap is verifiable.
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